3D dynamic model offers more accurate hazard assessments for earthquakes

An international study published in Communications Earth & Environment has advanced earthquake simulations to better anticipate the rupture process of large earthquakes.

Using data for the Turkey earthquake of February 2023, the scientists have developed a detailed 3D dynamic model that provides a more accurate understanding of the strong shaking during this earthquake and hence information for future seismic hazard assessments. The research was led by King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) Professor Martin Mai and scientist Bo Li.

The Turkey earthquake was responsible for the death of tens of thousands of people. It was marked by a doublet, which describes two major earthquakes separated by a short time. The first rupture fractured a long stretch of the fault approximately 350 km long, breaking different sections in succession. Just hours later, a second massive rupture followed, amplifying the destruction. Doublets do not show typical aftershock behavior and are a challenge to mathematically describe.

“The combination of 3D fault geometry and 3D Earth structure model makes our simulations much more realistic and explains a wide set of observations very well,” Mai said. These observations include complex patterns of ground shaking, which are often associated with increased damage and higher casualties due to more intense and irregular seismic waves.

The 3D rupture model, which was developed by Li, provides more detail of the earthquake, including how the rupture is triggered and delayed due to the earthquake’s complex geometry and rotational regional stress.

The model also demonstrates how changes in the rupture speed, especially for supershear ruptures, which describe ruptures on the fault that propagate faster than the seismic shear wave speed, can change the ground shaking pattern and cause amplified ground shaking far from the earthquake. This phenomenon was also observed during the Myanmar earthquake on March 28, 2025, which caused severe damage in Thailand several hundred kilometers from the ruptures.

These types of ruptures are also a growing concern in seismically active regions such as the Middle East.

“Advanced numerical simulations of earthquake physics will help better planning and allocation of resources so that infrastructure and lives are protected from violent doublets,” said Mai.