Governments drew their battle lines this week over how COP30 should respond to an expected shortfall in ambition in countries’ national climate plans, raising the prospect of a fight at the UN summit in Belém.
Countries are divided over the need for the COP30 talks to formally discuss an upcoming UN review of newly announced targets to cut greenhouse gas emissions. That ‘synthesis report’ is widely expected to show that the world is not on track to limit global warming in line with the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement.
The clash of views became public for the first time on Thursday as Brazil’s COP30 president André Corrêa do Lago hosted a first round of informal consultations with delegations in a bid to avert procedural arguments over the agenda delaying the start of negotiations, as has occurred in recent years.
Anticipating the row in a letter last month, the seasoned Brazilian diplomat on Thursday appealed to countries to “exercise restraint” at a time when UN climate diplomacy is facing “one of the greatest tests” ever.
Rich nations, least developed countries (LDCs), small island states, Latin American nations and the United Arab Emirates spoke in favour of a COP30 decision that acknowledges the progress and remaining gaps in nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and lays out a pathway for accelerating climate action in the years ahead.
But a group of high-income emerging countries – including China, Saudi Arabia and India – voiced strong opposition to that plan. They argued that discussions of those NDCs and the UN “synthesis report” assessing them are not on the summit’s agenda – and the only space for addressing a shortfall in ambition remains the Global Stocktake (GST).
A five-yearly process established by the Paris Agreement, the next GST is scheduled to be completed in 2028.
Two years ago, the first GST found the world was significantly off track to meet its climate goals. That exercise resulted at COP28 in Dubai in what was hailed as a historic global commitment to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems – but little has since been done to put that pledge into practice.
COP30 call for stronger climate plans
Speaking at Thursday’s consultation, the climate envoy for the low-lying Marshall Islands in the Pacific, said this round of NDCs – the third under the Paris Agreement – is “the last chance to course correct” emissions reductions in line with the 1.5C warming limit.
“We cannot wait for the next Global Stocktake,” she added. “That will be far too late for my country and millions of people around the world”.
Only a sixth of countries have presented their updated NDCs so far, including an emissions-cutting target for 2035, with those from many major economies including the European Union (EU), China and India still missing. A flurry of submissions is expected in the coming weeks ahead of an end-of-September deadline for their inclusion in the synthesis report.
The last such assessment, published last year, estimated that full implementation of the NDCs available at that point would lead to a 5.9% reduction in planet-heating emissions by 2030, compared to the 2019 level. That is far short of the 43% fall in global emissions the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has said is needed by the end of this decade to be in line with the 1.5C target.
Nepal’s lead negotiator, taking the floor for the world’s poorest nations, said COP30 must offer “a clear plan” to address gaps in both climate ambition and the implementation of existing commitments. “It must provide confidence that we are moving forward, offer solutions to close the gap and reaffirm trust in multilateralism,” he added.
Responding to NDCs seen as “priority”
Colombia’s head of delegation argued that COP30 will be “a defining political moment for the international community”. “It will test whether parties are willing to match words with action and put forward contributions that genuinely keep 1.5C within reach,” she added.
Framing talks on the updated climate plans as one of COP30’s main objectives, most developed countries urged a strong response to the expected shortfall, ideally in the form of a negotiated outcome agreed by all nations.
In new book, WRI chief argues for climate optimism despite obstacles
The EU went as far as calling for the creation of a new item on the summit’s agenda that directly addresses the level of collective ambition of NDCs and the steps needed to plug remaining gaps. “This is the key priority for the EU,” said the climate negotiator for the bloc.
Switzerland, speaking on behalf of the self-styled Environmental Integrity Group, suggested that, at the talks in the Amazon city of Belém, countries could launch a new political process to “bring us closer to 1.5C”. That could include a forum for ministers to come together and identify opportunities for cooperation on climate action.
Emerging economies push back
Large emerging economies and the group of Arab countries pushed back on the need to discuss climate plans – arguing the topic is not on the agenda and would go against the “nationally determined” nature of the Paris Agreement. Instead, they called for talks to focus on finance and trade measures.
India said it is unclear why a separate discussion on the NDC synthesis report is needed when it is not an item on the formal agenda.
China argued that the COP30 presidency should not create a new process to consider NDCs that would risk diluting the GST. “The current multilateral process is complex and fragile,” said the country’s delegate, adding “any negative evaluation of NDCs might lead to a decrease in confidence and mutual trust”.
China on course to peak fossil fuel power as soon as this year, reports say
Speaking on behalf of the “Like-Minded” group of developing countries, Bolivia’s lead negotiator said the bloc is not in favour of reflecting messages from the NDCs in any COP30 decisions, and in particular in a political cover text, as the Global Stocktake remains the only dedicated space to assess collective climate efforts. He added that there is no consensus on the need to respond to the latest round of NDCs at COP30.
Saudi Arabia, on behalf of the group of Arab countries, raised the concern “that this push places undue pressure on developing countries with respect to ambition at a time when the Paris Agreement has clearly moved into an implementation phase”.
Saudi Arabia’s negotiator added that submitting national climate plans and assessing them in one year is “destructive” and out of step with the Paris Agreement. He urged the Brazilian presidency to focus on issues around finance and trade, which often refers to mechanisms such as the EU’s forthcoming carbon border tax.
More consultations on the calendar
While the disagreements were starkly evident this week, the COP30 presidency plans further consultations in the hope that countries can work out a way forward on how to respond to the NDC and other tricky issues before the summit in November.
An in-person consultation will take place on September 25 in New York, the day after a high-level UN event where countries are due to unveil their latest NDCs, and a second will be held on October 15, in Brasília as part of the “Pre-COP” meetings.
“The smooth adoption of the agenda at COP30 may be one of our strongest demonstrations to the outside world that this [UN climate] regime works, is alive and well,” Corrêa do Lago told country officials on Thursday.
