Tropical storm conditions continue over much of the northwestern Bahamas as a steadily organizing Tropical Storm Imelda heads northward out of the islands. The National Hurricane Center, or NHC, reported Monday morning that a sustained wind of 48 mph (77 km/h) occurred at Little Hog Cay, in the North Abaco Islands of the Bahamas. A wind gust of 83 mph (134 km/h) was also reported in Treasure Cay, Bahamas, and the peak wind gust at Nassau this morning was 44 mph. A personal weather station on North Abaco Island received 7.37 inches of rain over the 48 hours ending at 11 a.m. EDT Monday.
As of 11 a.m. EDT Monday, Imelda was centered about 240 mi (385 km) east-southeast of Cape Canaveral, Florida, heading north at 7 mph (11 km/h) with top sustained winds of 60 mph (95 km/h) and a central pressure of 988 mb. Satellite imagery at midday Monday showed a steadily organizing storm boasting a large shield of heavy thunderstorms (convection) that covered much of the northwestern Bahamas. This convection was increasing in intensity and areal coverage. Conditions were favorable for development, with moderate wind shear of 10-15 knots, warm ocean temperatures of 29 degrees Celsius (84°F), and an adequately moist atmosphere.
Forecast for Imelda
Imelda’s northward motion will last through Monday night, bringing it due east of Cape Canaveral, Florida. By early Tuesday morning, Hurricane Humberto is expected to have a major steering influence on Imelda, yanking it sharply to the east-northeast. On this track, Imelda’s heaviest rains will miss the Southeast U.S. coast, where only one to two inches of rain, with isolated amounts up to four inches, are predicted to fall. The Tropical Storm Watch that was posted for Florida by NHC on Sunday has now been dropped.
Favorable conditions for development for Imelda are expected to continue through Wednesday, when NHC predicts that it will peak as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. At that time, Imelda is expected to be very near Bermuda; a Tropical Storm Watch will likely be issued for the island later on Monday. Imelda is expected to get a boost of energy from the jet stream as it begins to transition into a powerful extratropical storm near Bermuda. This process could lead to the development of a dangerous “sting jet” – a narrow band of violent and destructive winds along the back side of Imelda that quickly descends to the surface.
After Imelda passes Bermuda, its long-term fate is uncertain, but NHC is currently predicting that the storm will continue heading eastward out to sea and become extratropical by Friday.
Humberto on course to bother Bermuda
After peaking as a Cat 5 with 160 mph (260 km/h) winds on Saturday, Hurricane Humberto was a weaker but still formidable Category 4 storm with 145 mph (230 km/h) winds at 11 a.m. EDT Monday. Humberto was headed northwest at 13 mph (20 km/h) on a classic recurvature path that’s predicted to take it about 300 miles west of Bermuda on Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Watch is posted for the island, which is expected to see one to two inches of rain, winds approaching tropical storm force, and rough surf. Increased wind shear and cooler ocean temperatures will cause steady weakening of Humberto beginning on Tuesday, and the hurricane will likely become an extratropical storm on Thursday over the open central Atlantic.
Death toll mounts after Typhoon Bualoi grinds inland across Vietnam
After moving through the Philippines as a tropical storm just days behind Category 5 Typhoon Ragasa, Typhoon Bualoi slogged across the South China Sea and slid into the coast of north central Vietnam on Sunday night local time, causing widespread flooding and cutting off power to more than 300,000 customers.
Bualoi had rapidly strengthened into a Category-2-equivalent typhoon before making landfall north of Haiphong. Given Bualoi’s oblique approach, the stronger right-hand side stayed offshore till after landfall, but much of the Vietnam coast and areas inland experienced torrential rain on Bualoi’s southern, weaker left-hand side. Rainbands to the north extended to southern China, where they spawned several tornadoes and waterspouts.
The Associated Press reported on Monday morning that Bualoi had taken at least 12 lives in Vietnam, along with at least 20 fatalities in the Philippines from falling trees and drownings. This brings the toll from Bualoi on par with that of Ragasa, which took at least 29 lives.
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