Scientists have found that the devastating floods triggered by intense rainfall in Southern Africa in recent weeks were made worse by climate change and have exposed deep social vulnerability, causing a disaster described as “a textbook case of climate injustice”.
The scientists working with the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group said extreme 10-day rainfall events in the region are now about 40% more intense than in pre-industrial times, driven primarily by human-induced climate change – and on this occasion amplified by a weak La Niña pattern. While such rainfall remains relatively rare, the analysis shows it would have been far less severe in a cooler climate.
With more than 100 deaths recorded in Mozambique alone since the rains began in late December, the scientists said the impacts have been compounded by rapid urbanisation, weak planning and high levels of informal settlements, which left communities highly exposed and led to widespread collapses of housing and displacement of families.
Renate Meyer, Southern Africa focal point for the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, said that when studying extreme events, the WWA group now also looks at people’s vulnerability and exposure, to understand the context and the drivers of risk beyond meteorological conditions.
“Mozambique and parts of South Africa, Eswatini and Zimbabwe are no stranger to floods, but the recurring frequency of the hazards such as drought and intense rainfall have had a significant impact on communities experiencing, amongst others, displacement, health challenges, socio-economic loss and psychological distress,” Meyer told the press launch of the WWA study.
Friederike Otto, professor of climate science at Imperial College London’s Centre for Environmental Policy, said the Southern Africa floods are “a textbook case of climate injustice” because the people of the affected countries have not contributed to climate change, nor are they profiting from using or selling fossil fuels, yet they are the ones losing their lives, homes and livelihoods.
Such disasters can no longer be treated as “acts of God” when they are the direct result of a system built on exploitation and a global failure to phase out fossil fuels, she argued. “We have the know-how and tools to stop this from getting worse,” she added. “We now need the political will that prioritises everyone instead of just the very rich and GDP [gross domestic product]. ”
Climate and social vulnerabilities collide
Separately on Thursday, the charity Water Aid said that in Mozambique and Malawi, more than 800,000 people have been affected, with thousands living in temporary accommodation and shelters, while the number of deaths and people missing continues to rise.
In a statement launching an emergency funding appeal, Water Aid’s Southern Africa director Robert Kampala said the floods are some of the worst the region has ever seen. “This is rapidly becoming a public health crisis,” he added, noting that water sources are become contaminated with floodwater and people are forced to live in cramped shelters, raising the threat of cholera outbreaks and other diseases.
Meyer of the Red Cross said health risks in the region have soared during the floods, with more than 11,500 pregnant women and about 169,000 women of reproductive age among those hit hardest. Many are sheltering in overcrowded conditions with limited access to sexual and reproductive health services, exposing them to stress and increased risk of preterm birth and low birth weight, she told journalists.
Flood risk is higher for people with disabilities when emergency shelters lack ramps and adapted sanitation and support services. “These structural exclusions force people to remain in high-risk locations, converting exposure into avoidable loss,” Meyer said.
Children are also vulnerable, she noted, with around 40% of children in Mozambique currently experiencing malnutrition. “These children are repeatedly exposed to droughts, floods [and] cyclones, with insufficient time or resources to recover nutritionally or physiologically between shocks – and this erodes the possibility of building resilience,” she added.
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Bernardino Nhantumbo, climate researcher with Mozambique’s INAM National Institute of Meteorology in Maputo, said the flooding had caused a “collision” between a climate that grows more dangerous by the day and the region’s deep-rooted social vulnerabilities.
“When 90% of homes are made of sun-dried earth, they simply cannot withstand this much rain,” he said. “The structural collapse of entire villages is a stark reminder that our communities and infrastructure are now being tested by weather they are just not designed to endure.”
Growing needs, shrinking aid
Field reports from aid workers on the ground echo the WWA’s scientific findings. ActionAid Mozambique has said that humanitarian funding cuts and the climate crisis are putting thousands at risk after the dramatic rains and flooding in central and southern parts of the country.
With many people already living in poverty and informal housing, the floods have devastated lives and livelihoods, the aid organisation said. Elsa Manhique, a resident of the Buna area in Manhiça district, told ActionAid she had to “flee with nothing”. “Everything I had was taken by the water. The houses collapsed. We left without documents, without clothes, without anything,” she said.
Marcia Cossa, ActionAid Mozambique’s acting head, said the country is one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable nations, facing cyclones, floods and droughts that are intensifying due to climate change. “As needs grow, international aid and cooperation are shrinking, and that rollback is costing lives,” she added.
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Save the Children, an international aid charity, reported that thousands of children are at risk, with some families rescued by boat from submerged areas. Temporary shelters are overstretched, with some housing both people and livestock, creating serious health and hygiene concerns, the agency warned.
Ilaria Manunza, the charity’s country director, said the floods are unfolding amid a wider humanitarian emergency, pushing already exhausted communities further into crisis. With continued heavy rains forecast and emergency response capacity severely strained, families are being uprooted and children are at extreme risk, she said, calling for urgent support to prevent the emergency escalating further.
The WWA study said strengthening resilience against floods will require full implementation of existing policies and better coordination across river basins. It recommended investing in infrastructure and early warning systems, and building community capacity to prepare for, respond to, and recover from flooding.
