Real-time food insecurity forecasting is critical. Early warning systems identify emerging risks, such as conflict, climate shocks, and price spikes, months in advance, enabling humanitarian actors to mobilize resources and intervene before food insecurity escalates into widespread malnutrition or famine. The FAO-WFP (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations – World Food Programme) Hunger Hotspots[1], is one such early warning analysis which highlights contexts where food insecurity is likely to significantly worsen over the next seven months. The report does not include all countries that may be facing high levels of acute food insecurity, but, rather, focuses on those with deteriorating conditions over the near-term period.
In the latest edition of Hunger Hotspots. FAO–WFP Early Warnings on Acute Food Insecurity: November 2025 to May 2026 Outlook, acute food security is expected to worsen in 16 countries and territories: Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Democratic Republic of Congo, Chad, Somalia, Kenya, West Bank, Syrian Arab Republic, Afghanistan, Myanmar, Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh, with Sudan, Palestine (Gaza), South Sudan, Haiti, Mali, and Yemen among the hotspots of the highest concern. The projections underscore that without timely action, millions could face crisis or worse food security conditions by mid-2026.
The FAO-WFP divides hunger hotspots into three categories:
- * Hotspots of the highest concern – hotspots facing famine or risk of famine, populations already in Catastrophe (IPC/CH Phase 5)[2], or those in IPC/CH Phase 4 facing worsening conditions.at
- * Hotspots of very high concern – large populations are estimated or projected to be facing Emergency (IPC/CH Phase 4) levels of acute food insecurity, or severely food insecure according to the WFP CARI[3] method AND the number of people in Emergency (IPC/CH Phase 4) or severe food insecurity is expected to increase during the period,
- * Hotspots – this category includes other countries or contexts where food insecurity is likely to significantly worsen during the outlook period
The FAO-WFP identifies countries falling into these categories by convening an expert panel of food security, conflict analysts, and economists from all levels of the FAO and WFP who use a consensus-based approach in analyzing specific quantitative and qualitative data. These are forward-looking indicators which may cover a 6- to 12-month forecast window, rather than retrospective annual data.[4]
Fourteen of the sixteen countries face conditions of armed conflict and violence, making this the most significant driver of acute food insecurity. Across all regions, conditions are worsening due to climate variability causing droughts, floods, and erratic seasons, economic conditions (debt burdens, food inflation, economic fragility), and funding shortfalls as humanitarian assistance budgets are critically under-resourced means less capacity to intervene early, driving food insecurity across all regions.
For the countries categorized as “hotspots of the highest concern” specific factors leading to the deterioration of conditions include:
- Sudan: Acute food insecurity is worsening due to ongoing armed conflict that has displaced millions, disrupted markets and agricultural production, and severely restricted humanitarian access amid shrinking funding.
- Gaza: Livelihoods have deteriorated as violent conflict, restrictions on movement, and damage to infrastructure severely limit food availability, market access, and humanitarian assistance.
- South Sudan: Persistent conflict, recurring flooding, economic fragility, and high levels of displacement are undermining food production and access, while reduced humanitarian funding limits the scale of response.
- Haiti: Escalating gang violence, political instability, and economic shocks have disrupted supply chains and markets, driving food price inflation and severely restricting access to food and humanitarian assistance.
- Mali: Insecurity linked to armed conflict, population displacement, climate shocks, and economic pressures are eroding livelihoods and food access, with insufficient funding are limiting humanitarian and resilience efforts.
- Yemen: Prolonged conflict, economic collapse, restricted imports, and reduced humanitarian funding are driving high levels of food insecurity, leaving millions dependent on declining levels of food assistance.
The report urges that actions be taken immediately across all hotspot areas to prevent the deepening of the crises and to save lives, calling for increased humanitarian funding and emergency and anticipatory actions. Contextualized, specific emergency and anticipatory recommendations are listed for each hotspot country/territory.
It explains: “Famines are never inevitable – they are almost always foreseeable, preventable and driven by human actions. Famine is considered a failure of the humanitarian system.” [5]
As the quote above articulates, early warning data does not need to be a predictor of disaster, rather it can be an opportunity for coordinated and targeted interventions that can save lives if funded and implemented in a timely manner.
Read the full report here https://openknowledge.fao.org/items/fc67d706-e568-4de9-ad59-0a053506994f.
[1] Hunger Hotspots. FAO–WFP Early Warnings on Acute Food Insecurity: November 2025 to May 2026 Outlook available at https://openknowledge.fao.org/items/fc67d706-e568-4de9-ad59-0a053506994f
[2]https://www.ipcinfo.org/fileadmin/user_upload/ipcinfo/manual/IPC_Technical_Manual_3_Final.pdf
[3] https://vamresources.manuals.wfp.org/docs/the-consolidated-approach-for-reporting-indicators-of-food-security-cari
[4] Full details of the quantitative and qualitative indicators as well as the process are provided in detail in the Appendices of the Hunger Hotspots. FAO–WFP Early Warnings on Acute Food Insecurity: November 2025 to May 2026 Outlook
[5] pg vii
