In an increasingly unstable world of “strong arms and trade wars”, climate action is the “not-so-secret weapon” that can deliver security, the UN climate chief said in his first speech of the year.
Speaking in Istanbul alongside Turkiye’s COP31 president on Thursday, Simon Stiell warned that, while security is on most leaders’ lips at the moment, “many cling to a definition that is dangerously narrow”.
“For any leader who is serious about security, climate action is mission critical, as climate impacts wreak havoc on every population and economy,” he added. “Climate cooperation is an antidote to the chaos and coercion of this moment, and clean energy is the obvious solution to spiralling fossil fuel costs, both human and economic.”
Stiell’s remarks aim to reframe the global security debate at a time when climate change has slipped down the global political agenda.
Climate dropping down priority list
In much of the Western world, governments’ attention has shifted towards geopolitical tensions and spending redirected towards defence build-up following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and, more recently, US President Donald Trump’s military action in Venezuela and renewed pursuit of Greenland.
Climate change has also fallen sharply in public risk perception among advanced economies, according to the Munich Security Conference’s annual survey on national threats, released ahead of the annual gathering of leaders – including those of most European nations – which starts on Friday.
In 2021, respondents in the G7 industrialised nations ranked climate change as the top risk facing their countries. This year, it has slipped to sixth place, overtaken by worries about cyberattacks, financial crises and disinformation.
By contrast, climate-related threats continue to dominate risk perceptions in major emerging economies. In China, India, Brazil and South Africa, respondents consistently rank climate change, extreme weather and forest fires among the most serious dangers facing their countries, the survey found.
“Antidote to the chaos”
The shift in sentiment comes as global temperatures are on course to breach the 1.5C warming threshold widely regarded as a critical guardrail. Scientists warn surpassing that limit would significantly increase the likelihood of more frequent and severe climate impacts worldwide, from droughts to floods and storms.
“Growing greenhouse gas pollution means escalating climate extremes fuelling famine, displacement and war,” said Stiell on Thursday, adding that “climate adaptation is the only path to securing billions of human lives, as climate impacts get rapidly worse”.
Clean energy, meanwhile, is the best way to protect energy supplies and communities from fossil fuels’ volatile costs, he added.
“The fact is renewables are the clearest, cheapest path to energy security and sovereignty – shielding countries and economies from shocks unleashed by wars, trade turmoil and the might-is-right politics that leave every nation poorer,” the UN climate chief said.
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Ahead of the Munich Security Conference, energy analysts are warning that Europe should be wary of its reliance on US gas, which has become a growing energy source across the continent following restrictions on supplies from Russia after its invasion of Ukraine.
Chris Aylett, research fellow at Chatham House’s Environment and Society Centre, said Trump’s pursuit of geopolitical energy dominance seeks to lock countries, including EU member states, into long-term oil and gas dependencies.
“During peace, this vulnerability to an unreliable – if not actively hostile – supplier would be a major constraint on Europe’s strategic autonomy,” he added. “During war it would be catastrophic”.
What role for climate diplomacy?
UN climate head Stiell met this week with officials from the Turkish and Australian governments – co-hosts of this year’s COP31 summit in Antalya – as well as Brazil’s COP30 presidency to kick-start climate diplomacy efforts for the year ahead.
The ability of UN climate negotiations to keep up with the urgency of the climate crisis is coming under increasing question. The deepening divisions seen in Belém last November have stalled meaningful progress on key issues such as the transition away from fossil fuels and climate finance.
In his speech, Stiell acknowledged that climate cooperation is “under unprecedented threat” from those determined to use their power to increase dependency on polluting coal, oil and gas.
But climate action needs to enter a new “era of implementation” with the UN process moving closer to the real economy and countries deepening cooperation with businesses, investors and regional leaders, he added. Stiell noted he has convened experts to advise on this, and will say more about it in the months ahead.
Stiell’s remarks on the evolving UN climate regime echo the words of COP30 president André Aranha Corrêa do Lago. In a letter last month, he said climate multilateralism needs to “mature” and called for a shift to a two-speed system, where new coalitions lead fast, practical action alongside the slower, consensus-based decision-making of the annual COP climate summits.
