China has slightly weakened its headline climate target for the next five years, potentially allowing its emissions to rise until 2030, though persistent renewable energy growth could drive reductions faster than official goals suggest, analysts say.
In its five-year plan released on Thursday, the Chinese government pledges to cut carbon emissions per unit of gross domestic product – known as carbon intensity – by 17% between 2026 and 2030. That is slightly below its previous goal of an 18% reduction for the 2021–2025 period, which it had already missed.
Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst for the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), told Climate Home News the target was “underwhelming” and would allow emissions to rise by between 3% and 6% over the next five years, depending on the rate of economic growth.
In reality, China – the world’s biggest emitter – “clearly has the ability to keep emissions falling over this period”, he added.
Solar boom driving down emissions
Emissions from China’s energy and industrial sectors inched down by 0.3% in 2025 – the first full-year decline outside periods of major economic disruption, according to official figures at the end of February. The drop was primarily driven by a boom in solar power helping to meet a growing share of rising electricity demand, alongside efforts to decarbonise the transport, cement and metals sectors, analysis by CREA showed.
In 2021, China pledged under the Paris Agreement to reduce emissions intensity by 65% by the end of this decade from 2005 levels.
Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute, said economic disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic, slower growth and reliance on heavy industries had complicated progress, leaving a “daunting gap”.
The new interim target “indicates a quiet recalibration, effectively acknowledging how difficult the goal has become”, he added.
Tech expansion over policy targets
Moving beyond a narrow focus on carbon intensity, Beijing set for the first time last year an absolute emission reduction target, committing to cutting its greenhouse gas emissions by between 7% and 10% by 2035 from unspecified “peak levels”.
The new five-year plan does not set a cap on total emissions, but some analysts remain optimistic that China’s rapid expansion of renewables and electric vehicles can keep driving down emissions.
Explainer: Will AI data centres make or break the energy transition?
Li said that “while officials remain cautious about declaring an early peak, domestic debate is shifting from when emissions will peak to how quickly they should decline”.
“China’s clean technology development, rather than traditional administrative climate controls, is increasingly becoming the primary driver of emissions reductions,” he added.
Experts said the new five-year plan shows expansion of clean energy remains central for China, with a target to double non-fossil fuel energy over the next 10 years signalling an increased focus on energy storage, green fuels and plans to clean up dirty industries.
Myllyvirta said “this has a real chance of keeping China’s CO2 emissions on a downward path”, although “policymakers are not prepared to make such a commitment”.
Ambiguous signal on coal
Analysts said the economic blueprint’s ambiguous signal on coal – still China’s largest energy source – complicated the overall picture. The plan advocates a peak in coal consumption, but stops short of setting a target to gradually reduce it, as President Xi Jinping indicated in 2021.
In 2025, China added the largest amount of coal-fired capacity since 2015, while progress on retiring older plants remains very slow, according to a report published by CREA late last year.
Andreas Sieber, associate director of policy and campaigns at 350.org, a global, grassroots environmental organisation, said China’s five-year plan showed “insufficient progress” on coal.
“Expanding wind and solar at record speed is a huge achievement, but it must now be matched with a decisive phase-down of coal and a clear pathway to absolute emissions reductions,” he added in a written statement.
