While in countries in the Global North the debate largely focuses on rising energy prices for heating, transportation, and production, the war in the Middle East is triggering far more severe consequences worldwide. For many countries—particularly in Africa—a dangerous combination of energy price shocks, supply chain disruptions, and rising food costs is now emerging. This dynamic could further intensify existing hunger crises.
Several factors are driving this development at the same time. Particularly critical is the situation around the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil supply and nearly one-fifth of global LNG trade normally pass. Shipping traffic there has nearly come to a standstill, hundreds of tankers are stranded, and transportation costs have already begun to rise.
At the same time, key energy infrastructure has been damaged, with refineries and export terminals in the region affected. Even if the fighting were to end soon, repairs could take weeks or even months.
