Malnutrition rates are likely to increase worldwide due to fertilizers becoming less available. The primary driver for significant increases in fertilizer prices is the disruption of nitrogen and phosphate production from the current war in the Middle East.
The Middle East is a critical hub, accounting for roughly 10-50% of the world’s urea production and nearly half of the global tradable supply of sulfur (an essential input for phosphate). Furthermore, record-high natural gas prices in early 2026 have pushed the variable costs of ammonia production significantly higher. Fertilizer prices were already rising in early 2026, while major upside risks include conflict-related shipping disruption, tighter nitrogen and phosphate exports, and natural-gas uncertainty. The World Bank reported that fertilizer prices gained 6.5% in February 2026. Other groups, such as the FAO, Argus, and CRU have each flagged conflict-related risks to fertilizer and energy flows, especially through the Middle East and shipping routes.
The two charts shown, that are modeled on current trends suggest that key fertilizer prices may double in the coming 6 months.
The critical chokepoint has been the Strait of Hormuz. Following the war in late February 2026, the Hormuz waterway, which is responsible for a third of the world’s seaborne fertilizer trade, has closed, sending urea prices at NOLA up roughly 30% in the first two weeks of March alone. Shipping costs through the Red Sea have also risen more than 50%, further compressing margins across the supply chain.
The World Economic Forum adds: “It’s not just shipping that’s been disrupted. Qatar was forced to halt production at one of the world’s biggest urea plants last week, in the midst of what is planting season in much of the world. As of 2022, Qatar’s exports of synthetic nitrogen fertilizers including urea were keeping nearly 43 million people fed in the US, Brazil, and India alone.”
Sustained 40-to-60% price increases cause farmers, including smallholders, to under-apply nutrients, which translates into yield losses 6–12 months downstream. That lag is what makes the current moment especially dangerous for food insecure populations heading into late 2026. In other words, malnutrition is projected to increase after a lag time. Malnutrition will be widespread and diffuse, not localized to one area.
