Hurricane Trudy drenching Mexico; Guam braces for another typhoon » Yale Climate Connections

by Jeff Masters, Yale Climate Connections
October 15, 2026

The Atlantic has returned to its deep El Niño slumber after last week’s strike from Hurricane Isaias on the Florida Panhandle, with only hints of a potential system off the Carolinas a week or more from now, but the Pacific remains red-hot and packed with tropical cyclone activity. The action is particularly intense in the eastern Pacific, which has already set a record for the busiest season on record: as of Thursday, October 15, the 2026 tally of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 331 for the eastern Pacific (east of the International Date Line) has surpassed the previous full-season ACE record of 318 set in 2018.

So far in 2026, the eastern Pacific has amassed 22 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and nine major hurricanes (including a record-tying three Cat 5s). The records are 27 named storms (set in 1997), 16 hurricanes (in 1990, 2024, 1992, and 2015), and 11 major hurricanes (in 2015). In a typical year (based on 1991-2020 data), the Northeast Pacific generates two more named storms, including one major hurricane, from October 15 onward, and conditions this year are far from typical.

Hurricane Trudy drenching Mexico

Hurricane Trudy achieved Cat 1 intensity early Thursday a few hundred miles south of the Pacific coast of Mexico, and is already spreading heavy rains along the coast of Mexico between Guerrero and Michoacan, where 2-4 inches are expected. With a small and well-formed inner core in place, Trudy can take advantage of warm ocean waters of 29 degrees Celsius (84°F), low wind shear of 5-10 knots, and a very moist atmosphere.

Although Trudy may encounter some cooler waters upwelled by Hurricane Simon, Polo, and Rachel in recent weeks, NHC is confident that Trudy will rapidly intensify into a Cat 3 by Friday and peak as a Cat 4 on Saturday, before high wind shear and dry air weaken the storm on Sunday, when it will be very near the coast. The forecast is a tricky one, with Trudy predicted to follow a path eerily similar to the one traced out by Simon last week, passing within about 100 miles of Mexico’s Colima and Jalisco states. Like Simon before it, NHC is calling for Trudy to produce 4-8 inches of rain with isolated higher totals around 12 inches across Colima and Jalisco.              

Long-lived Simon churns toward Baja

After forming off the Pacific coast of Mexico on October 7, Tropical Storm Simon is still churning the waters off the coast as it heads north-northwest toward an expected demise this weekend just offshore from the central Baja Peninsula. Simon peaked as a high-end Cat 4 hurricane with 155 mph (250 km/h) winds last week before weakening to a Cat 4 with 130-150 mph (210-240 km/h) winds on October 11, passing just 100 miles (160 km) west of the Mexican states of Colima and Jalisco. Heavy rains from Simon killed two and forced 5,000 people to evacuate in Mexico. High wind shear and dry air are expected to destroy Simon this weekend, with the storm never making landfall.

Tropical Storm Champi a threat to Guam and the U.S. Northern Mariana Islands

In the western Pacific, Tropical Storm Champi formed north of Micronesia Thursday morning, and appears poised to rapidly intensify into a typhoon before impacting Guam and the U.S. Northern Mariana Islands this weekend. Champi may go on to impact the Philippines, Taiwan, or Japan late next week. Champi is a name contributed by Laos and named after the white champaca flower.

Champi was not well-organized on Thursday morning, with moderate wind shear of 10-15 knots causing the vortex to be tilted with height, slowing development. The intensity of Champi will strongly depend on how rapidly it can become vertically aligned in the face of this wind shear, which is expected to persist through Saturday, when the storm will be making its pass through the islands. In their 8 a.m. EDT Thursday advisory, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) called for Champi to rapidly intensify in the 24 hours before passing near Guam as a Category 2 typhoon with 105 mph (165 km/h) winds, around 23 UTC Saturday (7 p.m. EDT). The Thursday morning models gave a plausible intensity range of a strong tropical storm to a Cat 3 hurricane at that time, with a track ranging from 35 miles (55 km) south of Guam to about 50 miles (85 km) north of it (just south of Rota Island).

After passing Guam and the Northern Marianas, Trudy can take advantage of warm ocean waters of 29-30 degrees Celsius (84-86°F) that extend to great depth, wind shear that will be falling to the low range, 5-10 knots, and a very moist atmosphere. These nearly ideal conditions for intensification should allow Champi to achieve at least Category 4 strength. The long-range fate of the storm is too far in the future to predict, but the Philippines, Taiwan, China, and Japan all need to watch future forecasts.

Champi is the 3rd typhoon to affect Guam and the U.S. Northern Marianas in 2026

Along with Hawaii, Guam and the U.S. Northern Marianas have seen the most tropical cyclone activity of any locations in the U.S. so far in 2026. The two other storms were both Cat 5 super typhoons:

• Super Typhoon Bavi passed about 2 miles north of Rota Island in the U.S. Northern Mariana Islands on July 5 when at peak strength with 180 mph (285 km/h) winds. The large eye of the storm completely encompassed the island, and the mayor of Rota described it as being damaged “in every aspect.” Passing well north of the Philippines as a Category 1 storm several days later, Bavi triggered heavy rains and landslides that killed 23 people and left 18 missing across the Philippines. Bavi later hit China as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph (150 km/h) winds on July 12, causing at least $124 million in damage. Technically, we can’t credit Bavi for making landfall in Rota (and thus the U.S.), since the center of the eye passed 2 miles north of the island. But regardless of technicalities, Bavi was catastrophic for Rota. Amazingly, this island of about 1900 residents reported no storm-related deaths and only two injuries.
• Super Typhoon Sinlaku peaked with 185 mph (295 km/hr) winds a few hundred miles southeast of Guam on April 12, making the typhoon Earth’s strongest storm of 2026. Sinlaku weakened to a Cat 4 with sustained winds of 145 mph (230 km/hr) at landfall in the U.S. Northern Mariana Islands on April 14, with the large eye of the storm passing over both Tinian and Saipan islands simultaneously. Sinlaku killed 17 and did about $1.5 billion in damage to the Northern Mariana Islands and Guam. Sinlaku was the 10th Category 4 or 5 tropical cyclone to hit a U.S. state or territory in the past 10 years; that’s as many Cat 4 and Cat 5 landfalls as the U.S. Gulf and Atlantic coasts suffered over the prior 57 years.

Bob Henson and Irene Sans contributed to this post.

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