Behind the COP31 fanfare, Türkiye is worried about water

Efe Baysal leads the Türkiye team of global climate advocacy group 350.org. 

As Türkiye welcomed world leaders in Antalya during the first week of the UN climate summit, few were probably aware that wildfires raged just a few kilometres from the COP31 venue in September, injuring several people and forcing hundreds to flee their homes. 

Efe Baysal leads the Türkiye team of global climate advocacy group 350.org. 

As Türkiye welcomed world leaders in Antalya during the first week of the UN climate summit, few were probably aware that wildfires raged just a few kilometres from the COP31 venue in September, injuring several people and forcing hundreds to flee their homes. 

Wildfires are one of the signs of a rapidly heating planet. Prolonged heatwaves and drought create ideal conditions for fires to start and to spread. In the coastal province of Antalya, 8,000 hectares have already been lost to forest fires this year alone. 

It is a crucial moment for climate diplomacy. This year we have seen the human cost and mounting economic damage of climate impacts, from Europe’s heatwaves to Nepal’s deadly glacial floods. Scientists warn that the world will breach the 1.5C temperature limit within a few years. 

The stakes have never been higher as the Turkish government takes its turn hosting the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN climate convention. Türkiye has a lot riding on the summit, and not only its ability to stage one. Many in the country hope COP31 will put a spotlight on its own climate and environmental crisis. 

Extreme weather in Türkiye is becoming far more frequent. In 2011, the country recorded more than 300 extreme weather events. By 2023, according to the Turkish State Meteorological Service, the figure had reached almost 1,500. 

Dried-up lakes and sinkholes 

For a semi-arid country, drought is a particular threat. Half of Türkiye’s population is at risk of water shortages by 2030, and last year brought the lowest rainfall in 61 years. 

Perhaps the starkest sign of this is the alarming rate at which Türkiye’s lakes are vanishing. Three-quarters of its lakes have dried up in the past 50 years, many of them just in the last decade, marking the loss of ecological systems that have sustained generations of farmers and fishermen.  

An example is Lake Iznik, the country’s fifth-largest natural lake and the site of the Byzantine Basilica of Saint Neophytos, a fifth-century site whose ruins were first discovered underwater. When Pope Leo visited last year, they stood exposed on dry land as the shoreline had dramatically retreated. 

Locals fear that due to drought, as well as the pumping of large volumes of water by big agricultural companies, Lake Iznik will disappear. As Iznik recedes, the coastal water wells that irrigate olive groves have run dry. 

“Everyone stands over their phones waiting for weather forecasts, wondering, ‘Will it rain today?’,” one 65-year-old olive farmer told me. “It used to snow waist-deep, and roads would remain closed for weeks. Today, children have forgotten what snow is.”  

Agricultural stress isn’t limited to Iznik. In 2025, Türkiye’s crop and field production fell by 9%, while fruits, beverage and spice plants lost nearly a third of their output. According to the agriculture ministry, drought and frost were the main causes. 

Visible scars of climate crisis 

Sinkholes are also rapidly increasing, now numbering more than 1,000. Most of them are located in the Konya Basin, where groundwater levels fall by about 2 metres a year due to reduced rainfall and excessive extraction.  

Türkiye’s sinkholes aren’t just a hazard to human life and infrastructure. They’re a graphic representation of how two human-made phenomena – groundwater exploitation and the climate crisis – combine to weaken the land, causing it to collapse upon itself.   

Burnt forests, disappearing lakes, gaping sinkholes: many of these reminders of the climate crisis will remain hidden from visitors in Antalya this month. But the clamour for action will be on full display. 

Since last year’s climate summit, a growing number of countries have rallied around a way forward: roadmaps to transition away from fossil fuels. More than just emission-reduction targets, these transition roadmaps are concrete plans on how to end dependence on fossil fuels, the main driver of climate change, in a just and orderly way.  

As the Hormuz crisis has shown, not having to rely on oil and gas is no longer just about saving future generations from climate catastrophe – it’s also about saving next month’s household budget.  

Electrification milestone 

Türkiye is highly dependent on imported fossil fuels, spending an average of $42 billion annually on oil, gas, and coal over the last 10 years. The Hormuz crisis has increased these costs, with Turkish households and businesses losing an additional $3 billion in just two months’ worth of fossil fuel price spikes. 

In launching the “35 by 35” electrification target, Türkiye’s COP President Murat Kurum acknowledged the need to protect citizens from high energy prices. This new global target for electricity to meet 35% of final energy demand by 2035 is shaping up to be one of the milestones of this year’s climate talks.  

It’s a good target because electrifying transport, buildings and industry significantly cuts not just pollution, but daily expenses too. But electrification alone is not enough. Without an accompanying fossil fuel phase-out, electrification won’t be able to stop further climate and economic catastrophe.

Comment: Turkey must make COP31 a turning point for global climate action

A case in point is Türkiye’s new National Energy Plan 2040. The plan’s emphasis on electrification and the expansion of renewable energy capacity is welcome – these are positive steps that align with the messages coming from Türkiye’s COP31 presidency. However, for the plan to represent genuinely ambitious climate action, it must include a clear commitment and timeline to phase out coal. 

Türkiye still relies on mostly imported coal for around one-third of its energy. A 350.org report has revealed that the coal trade between Türkiye and Australia – with which it shares the COP31 presidency – has been responsible for roughly 75 million tonnes of carbon emissions since the Paris Agreement was signed. Neither country has a coal phase-out date.

COP31 is an opportunity to change course. The Turkish government has made good progress on expanding solar and wind energy. In 2025, Türkiye surpassed its solar target as capacity had more than doubled in recent years. It must now build on this progress. 

The world will be watching Türkiye as the climate summit heads into its second week. The Turkish government must ensure that global leaders implement real solutions that won’t leave its own citizens high and dry.