June 1st marks the official start to the Atlantic hurricane season, and it’s likely to be a below-normal season, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. With a strong El Niño likely in the works, the forecast calls for a 55% chance of a below-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of an above-average season.
On May 21, NOAA is forecasting between eight and 14 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which three to six could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), and of those hurricanes, one to three could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher).
When a positive phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, meaning El Niño, occurs, the tropical Pacific has warmer-than-average temperatures. Although the oceanic warming is centered in the eastern tropical Pacific, El Niño has impacts worldwide. The phenomenon can occur at any time of the year, but when it is present in the summer, it directly affects the number of tropical systems likely to develop in the Atlantic.
One reason we know that a strong El Niño is likely to develop is that the tropical Pacific waters have warmed significantly in recent months; between January and May, surface water temperatures have increased by about 5 degrees Fahrenheit (3 degrees Celsius). Also, there have been periods of unusually strong westerly winds pushing warm water eastward through the tropical Pacific. Seasonal forecast models agree that El Niño is likely to peak in the strong to very strong range by late 2026 or early 2027.
El Niño increases the number of tropical systems in the tropical Pacific by decreasing wind shear (a change in winds across the upper levels of the atmosphere). In the Atlantic, the opposite occurs: During El Niño events, wind shear increases, which often does not allow a tropical system to continue its building cycle. Keep in mind that wind shear can still increase and decrease throughout the season, and it can be strong in one region of the Atlantic Basin and be weak in another region at the same time.
With the prospect of a Strong El Niño arriving for peak Atlantic hurricane season (Aug / Sep / Oct (ASO)), here's what history tells us since 1950.Strong El Niño years have historically produced fewer storms, less active behavior, and fewer US landfalls.But the risk is NOT zero. Always be ready.
— Steve Bowen (@stevebowen.bsky.social) 2026-05-21T16:44:23.925Z
Previous seasons with a strong El Niño
The last five years in which a strong El Niño has been present, based on the new Relative El Niño Index, were 2023, 2015, 1997, 1982, and 1972.
- The 2023 season developed a strong El Niño as it progressed and remained active with above-average activity, mainly due to warm sea surface temperatures. This season was notable for four landfalling storms: Category 3 Hurricane Idalia in the Florida Big Bend, Tropical Storm Ophelia in North Carolina, Hurricane Tammy in Barbuda, and Tropical Storm Philippe in the Barbuda-Dominica region.
- There was a very strong El Niño during the 2015 hurricane season, with no hurricanes making landfall in the U.S., but Hurricane Joaquin devastated the Bahamas, Tropical Storm Bill struck Texas, and Tropical Storm Erika hit Dominica.
- In 1997, there were only nine named systems, compared to the 1991-2020 average of 14 named systems. The only landfalling U.S. hurricane in 1997 was Danny, which formed just south of Louisiana, made landfall in Louisiana as a hurricane, and then hit again in Alabama.
- There were only nine named systems during the 1982 hurricane season, with most staying over the waters. Hurricane Debby was the strongest storm of this season, reaching Category 4 with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph (215 km/h), but it also stayed as a fish storm away from land.
- The 1972 season was significantly below average, with only seven named systems. Nonetheless, there was Hurricane Agnes, which spun from a cold front on June 14 and became a Category 1 hurricane as it inched closer to the Florida Panhandle, making landfall near Panama City. Although it lost its hurricane-force winds as it moved over the Southeast, this storm caused torrential rains and severe storms, producing at least 26 confirmed tornadoes in Florida and Georgia, and resulting in $4.5 million in damage and six fatalities. More flooding occurred in Pennsylvania as the system curved out over the western Atlantic, regaining tropical storm status before making another landfall near New York City.
NOAA highlights the importance of being prepared
Although El Niño is likely to occur and intensify as the season moves into what are normally the most active months, August through October, there is still plenty of warm water over the Atlantic Basin. Warm waters serve as fuel for storms, which become more intense when all other factors align (such as weak wind shear and staying over water). Water temperatures, although not as warm as in recent years at this time of year, are still above average in nearshore waters of the western Caribbean, Central America, and North America. Currently, temperatures are below average across the eastern Atlantic, but the forecast calls for the waters to warm significantly as we move through the summer months.
It is important to highlight that having warmer waters near land, especially at the beginning of the season, poses a particular challenge, as it leaves less time for preparedness if a storm is fueled by these waters and puts many more people at risk of being impacted, often by a stronger tropical system.
“Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” said NOAA National Weather Service director Ken Graham. “That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”
Bob Henson contributed to this post.
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