Barely one month after launching Africa’s biggest dam, the Ethiopian government’s new climate plan outlines an ambition to reduce its heavy reliance on rainfall-reliant hydropower by getting more electricity from solar, wind and biogas.
In its nationally determined contribution (NDC), the government said it wants to reduce the vulnerability of its energy system to climate-driven droughts by scaling up other renewables in its energy mix for off-grid and mini-grid systems to ensure access and reliable electricity.
Last month, the country launched the $5 billion Grand Ethiopia Renaissance Dam (GERD), which is expected to double the amount of electricity the country produces. The government aims to use the electricity to expand access to the grid to more Ethiopians, to promote electric vehicle use and to export to neighbouring countries in East Africa.
Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said at the dam’s launch event that it will “provide clean energy, to light up the region, and to change the history of black people.” The government says that over 95% of its electricity capacity comes from clean sources, mainly hydropower.
Drought fears
But its 2025 National Drought Resilient Plan says investing in sustainable alternatives such as solar, wind and biogas need to be prioritised to provide reliable electricity due to Ethiopia’s vulnerability to droughts, which scientists have found have been made worse by climate change.
Eliyas Abdi Ali, a water resources researcher at Ethiopia’s Haramaya University, said this ambition “reflects a mature, layered strategy, recognising that no single energy source is immune to climate shocks, and that diversification into solar, wind, and biogas is essential”.
Nicolas Fulghum, senior data analyst at Ember, also praised this strategy saying that diversifying to solar and wind will strengthen Ethiopia’s energy security while existing hydropower “provides the flexibility to integrate them”. He added: “Solar and reservoir hydropower are a natural match, with the additional solar generation preserving water and hydro supporting demand at night.”
Hydropower dams produce electricity by using water flow to spin turbines. When there is less rainfall than usual, there is less water in the reservoir and less electricity is generated.
Other hydropower-reliant nations have already suffered black-outs. The Southern African nations of Zambia and Zimbabwe rely on the Kariba Dam, which straddles the Zambezi river which marks their border, for the vast majority of their electricity.
When drought hit last year, the reservoir levels fell as did the amount of electricity generated. Both countries suffered prolonged power cuts which harmed their economies and sparked a boom in solar panel purchases among wealthier citizens.
While African nations like Nigeria, the Democratic Republic Congo and Angola are pursuing hydropower, most existing and planned capacity is in Europe and Asia with China having by far the largest share. This has caused problems in some regions.
In 2022, drought forced factories in the hydropower-reliant province of Sichuan to close down temporarily due to a lack of electricity, with experts calling for the authorities to do more to store water in reservoirs in rainy periods.
New Zealand, which gets half of its electricity capacity from hydropower, this week announced plans to pursue imports of gas and use coal to help guard with what its government calls “dry year risk”.
