After an opening call by Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to discuss a roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels at COP30, countries are starting to rally behind the idea, with experts saying it could lead to an agreement in Belém to move forward on the idea.
Brazilian Environment Minister Marina Silva hosted ministers from the UK and Germany at Brazil’s COP pavilion on Wednesday to launch a call for a planned shift away from fossil fuels, with support from Denmark, Kenya, Colombia, France and the Marshall Islands.
“We need a dialogue with everyone – producers, consumers and those who are affected by our actions. We need a compass to guide us away from our dependency on fossil fuels,” said Silva, who first suggested the idea in London in June.
UK climate envoy Rachel Kyte told the COP30 event that “there is a way for us to walk out of here with a roadmap to manage the transition away from fossil fuels, [to] manage their just transitions, but also manage what was set out in the Paris Agreement.”
“Jigsaw” of initiatives
Observers at the UN climate talks told Climate Home News that while several proposals for a fossil fuel transition roadmap have emerged, it remains unclear how they could land in the formal climate talks, as the topic is not on the negotiating agenda.
An agreement to start working on a roadmap could be included in a cover decision for the talks – a general text brokered by the COP presidency at some summits – or in any of the established formal negotiations on cutting emissions, they said.
The Environmental Integrity Group – composed of Mexico, Liechtenstein, Monaco, Korea, Switzerland and Georgia – also expressed support for the Brazil-led initiative and have even submitted a proposal to discuss a roadmap in the negotiating rooms.
But the EIG proposal was rejected by oil-producing countries in the Arab group – among them Saudi Arabia, which last year blocked all mentions of fossil fuels at COP29. Major coal producers in the Like Minded Developing Countries (LMDCs) – among them China and India – are also opposed.
Colombia has opted for a different approach, seeking support for a political declaration on a planned fossil fuel transition outside of the UN climate talks, which is so far backed by small islands and Panama, one observer told Climate Home News.
The country also announced on Thursday a plan to make the Colombian Amazon free of fossil fuels and large-scale mining, which picks up on campaigners’ calls to create oil and gas “exclusion zones” such as across biodiversity-rich areas. Colombia will also host a fossil fuel phase-out summit in 2026.
The “jigsaw” of initiatives and the “diplomatic heavyweights” supporting it suggests there is a “growing sense that this needs to be part of the final package” in Belém, according to Romain Ioualalen, global policy campaign manager with Oil Change International.
“Now the job for the next few days is giving confidence to the [COP30] presidency that there is a broad base of support for this,” he said, adding that countries also need to pin down how such a roadmap could look.
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COP host lukewarm
But while Brazil’s political leadership is pushing the fossil fuel transition up the agenda, the COP30 presidency’s top diplomats have distanced themselves. On Wednesday, COP30 President André Correa do Lago said it was not an item on the agenda, and COP30 CEO Ana Toni reiterated the same point on Thursday, after several countries had voiced support for the discussions.
“The topic is not – at the moment at least – in the negotiations, and we will need to see how parties come together,” Toni told a press conference in Belém.
Brazil has been caught up in controversy for awarding a drilling license to state-oil company Petrobras near the mouth of the Amazon River just days before COP30. The Amazon Basin has emerged as a new oil and gas frontier, with growing production plans.
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The South American country is also one of the 20 major oil and gas producers planning to expand their fossil fuel output in the next decade, according to this year’s Production Gap report, and is set for one of the largest oil expansions alongside Saudi Arabia and the US.
Meanwhile, Indigenous activists who have been affected by new oil and gas drilling in their territories ramped up calls for this COP to address fossil fuels.
Olivia Bisa, leader of the Chapra nation in the Peruvian Amazon whose land is crossed by a large oil pipeline, told an event at COP30 that Indigenous people are “giving their lives” fighting back.
“Some weeks ago, a brother leader in my territory was murdered. I don’t want his death to remain unpunished, just for defending life. We are defenders of life,” she said. “We need support in this fight – not just at COPs but in our territories where we’re exposing our lives.”
