President Xi Jinping has committed China to producing a comprehensive emissions reduction plan, covering for the first time all economic sectors and greenhouse gases, under the UN climate process.
In a speech widely seen as reaffirming the commitment of the world’s biggest polluter to global climate action, Xi said on Wednesday that “no matter how the international situation changes, China will not slow down its efforts to address climate change”.
Speaking at a virtual meeting of global leaders organised by the United Nations and Brazil, Xi announced that China would set new goals to cut emissions by 2035 “covering the entire economy, including all greenhouse gases” ahead of the COP30 summit in November, according to a text published by China’s state news agency.
China’s current target for 2030 – included in its latest Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) released four years ago – only covers carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted by the energy sector.
Push for stronger targets
Tackling emissions of all greenhouses gases, beyond CO2, across the whole of the economy is seen as crucial in limiting global warming in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement. Through its coal mining and farming sectors, for example, China is the world’s largest emitter of methane, which has a shorter lifespan but is much more potent than CO2.
Addressing the media after Wednesday’s summit, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said Xi’s pronouncement on the upcoming Chinese NDC was “extremely important for climate action”.
After most nations missed an initial February deadline to submit their new NDCs, Brazil’s COP30 presidency – which is organising this year’s UN climate summit in November – and UN officials are encouraging countries to produce updated targets by September.
At Wednesday’s meeting, which saw the participation of 17 leaders, Brazil urged larger economies, including the European Union and China, to commit to cutting greenhouse gas emissions enough to keep global warming “well below” 2 degrees Celsius, as promised in the Paris Agreement, according to Reuters.
Scientists say the planet is already getting perilously close to heating up by 1.5C above pre-industrial times, which is the lower temperature limit governments agreed to aim for in the Paris pact.
Uncertainty over China’s ambition
While close observers of China’s climate policy welcomed Xi’s comments, they cautioned against assuming that the nation’s emission-cutting plans will be automatically ambitious.
Yao Zhe, global policy advisor at Greenpeace East Asia, told Climate Home that “a strong NDC from China is not yet guaranteed”.
She added that, while discussions being elevated to the highest political level is “a big step forward”, the level of ambition “remains an open question”, especially given the ongoing tariff war with the United States.
Currently, China – which alone accounts for a third of global emissions – has a goal of peaking CO2 emissions “before 2030” and reaching carbon neutrality by 2060.
Since 2020, the country has also pledged to reduce CO2 emissions per unit of GDP – a measure known as carbon intensity – by more than 65% below 2005 levels by 2030.
China is far off track to meet that intensity target under the combined effect of slower economic growth and a faster rise in CO2 emissions, Lauri Myllyvirta, senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute, wrote in an analysis for Dialogue Earth.
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He told Climate Home that Xi’s statement this week did not answer questions over whether China would put forward an absolute emissions reduction target encompassing everything – or different types of targets for the various sectors and gases.
“Coverage isn’t everything,” he said. “It would be better to have an ambitious target for the main CO2-emitting sectors than to have a weak target covering everything.”
Xi’s dig at Trump policy
But the real significance lies in the level of political buy-in. “The more Xi is personally involved and associated with the targets, the less the government can afford the targets to be disappointing or weak,” said Myllyvirta.
In his speech at the UN meeting, Xi also called on countries to support multilateral climate action and deepen international cooperation to enable the free flow of green technologies, in a thinly veiled attack on US policies under President Donald Trump.
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His administration has begun the process of withdrawing the US from the Paris Agreement and has slapped tariffs of up to 3,521% on solar panels from key producing countries across Asia.
“The green transition is the only way to deal with climate change, and a new engine for economic and social development,” said Xi on Wednesday.
