Climate change behind 36% of damage inflicted by Typhoon Ragasa in China » Yale Climate Connections

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After peaking as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds, Super Typhoon Ragasa made landfall in the southern Chinese city of Yangjiang in Guangdong Province on September 24 as a Category 3 storm with winds of 120 mph (195 km/h). Ragasa is being blamed for at least 29 deaths and damages in the hundreds of millions of dollars, according to insurance broker Aon. A study released today as part of a new initiative at Imperial College London called the Climate Damage Tracker, which calculates the human and economic costs of climate change, found that climate change boosted Typhoon Ragasa’s winds by 7% and rainfall by 12% at landfall. This is equivalent to intensifying the storm from a weak to a strong Category 3. These factors combined to increase Ragasa’s damages by 36%, the scientists said.

Recovering from a brutal chase. My 82nd core penetration did not come easy, but it did come. Got into eye of #Typhoon #RAGASA on Hailing Island China 6 pm Wednesday. Storm was decaying but violent. Eyewall was gusty, explosive, micobursty. Lots of damage to hotel & trees. Now en route back to US.

Josh Morgerman (@icyclone.bsky.social) 2025-09-26T21:41:26.121Z

The scientists found that in a cooler world without climate change, similar wind speeds would be expected about once every 33 years. But today, with 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.3°F) of global warming, Ragasa’s intense winds have become 49% more likely and are now expected about once every 17 years. Ragasa’s heavy rains could have been expected in the region about once every 8.8 years in the pre-industrial climate, but today, they are expected every 6.7 years.

A map of the Atlantic Ocean showing potential forecast tracks generated by Google Deepmind and European model ensembles through next Thursday, October 9, 2025
Figure 1. Low-pressure tracks through next Thursday, October 9, 2025, from Google’s DeepMind hurricane model (top) and the European model ensemble system (bottom), or a tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on Friday, October 3. (Image credit: Weathernerds.org and Weathermodels.com, via Michael Lowry’s Substack feed)

New Atlantic tropical wave to watch

A tropical wave that came off the coast of Africa on October 3 is expected to gradually develop over the coming week as it tracks westward to west-northwestward through the central tropical Atlantic. The wave has had strong model support for development as it nears the Lesser Antilles Islands in the October 9-11 timeframe, when wind shear over the disturbance is expected to be low to moderate. In their 8 a.m. EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center, or NHC, gave the disturbance two-day and seven-day odds of development of 0% and 40%, respectively. The next name on the Atlantic list of storms is Jerry.

NHC is also tracking an area of low pressure near the Bahamas. High wind shear should prevent development of this system, which has little model support for development. In their 8 a.m. EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook NHC gave the disturbance two-day and seven-days odds of development of 10%.

Bob Henson contributed to this post.

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Jeff Masters

Jeff Masters, Ph.D., worked as a hurricane scientist with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. After a near-fatal flight into category 5 Hurricane Hugo, he left the Hurricane Hunters to pursue a…
More by Jeff Masters



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