Andreas Sieber is head of political strategy at 350.org. Shady Khalil is a senior global policy strategist at Oil Change International.
COP31 will take place in the context of what Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, has called the “biggest energy crisis in history” – an extraordinary warning from a typically measured leader. A UN climate summit that fails to address fossil fuel dependency, energy affordability and energy access will not only fail politically; it will fail economically and socially too.
The last COP in Belém created several important building blocks: a Global Implementation Accelerator, a Just Transition Mechanism, the climate finance work programme, an expanded Action Agenda linked to the first Global Stocktake (GST1), and the Presidency-led Belém Roadmaps on forests and transitioning away from fossil fuels (TAFF).
But COP31 will need to move from frameworks to delivery. The historic first international conference on the transition away from fossil fuels in Santa Marta, Colombia, in April added further momentum to this agenda.
Development hit to importing nations
The countries paying the highest price for fossil fuel volatility are not the richest countries. The cost of dependency on fossil fuels is hitting importing low-income countries the hardest. Over three-quarters of the world’s population lives in countries that are net importers of fossil fuels. High energy prices push up food costs. Inflation fuels political instability. Debt burdens deepen. The fossil fuel crisis has become a development crisis. That is why COP31 matters.
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Andreas Sieber is head of political strategy at 350.org. Shady Khalil is a senior global policy strategist at Oil Change International.
COP31 will take place in the context of what Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, has called the “biggest energy crisis in history” – an extraordinary warning from a typically measured leader. A UN climate summit that fails to address fossil fuel dependency, energy affordability and energy access will not only fail politically; it will fail economically and socially too.
The last COP in Belém created several important building blocks: a Global Implementation Accelerator, a Just Transition Mechanism, the climate finance work programme, an expanded Action Agenda linked to the first Global Stocktake (GST1), and the Presidency-led Belém Roadmaps on forests and transitioning away from fossil fuels (TAFF).
But COP31 will need to move from frameworks to delivery. The historic first international conference on the transition away from fossil fuels in Santa Marta, Colombia, in April added further momentum to this agenda.
Development hit to importing nations
The countries paying the highest price for fossil fuel volatility are not the richest countries. The cost of dependency on fossil fuels is hitting importing low-income countries the hardest. Over three-quarters of the world’s population lives in countries that are net importers of fossil fuels. High energy prices push up food costs. Inflation fuels political instability. Debt burdens deepen. The fossil fuel crisis has become a development crisis. That is why COP31 matters.
The Presidency-led Belém Roadmaps on forests and TAFF are expected to be presented at COP31. The next step should be obvious: countries need domestic roadmaps showing how they will actually implement the transition at home.
A growing number are expected to develop such plans. COP31 should encourage them to put together domestic implementation roadmaps for shifting off fossil fuels that have concrete milestones, sectoral targets, investment strategies and policy measures.
At the same time, these processes must recognise that countries do not share the same starting points, capacities or development needs. For some, this may take the form of comprehensive roadmaps to phase out production and consumption, while for others the priority may be economic diversification, industrial transformation or expanding energy access and energy sovereignty.
Risk of disorderly transition
Without credible planning and international cooperation, the transition risks being too slow and increasingly chaotic, with fossil fuel demand destruction occurring through rationing, price shocks and de-industrialisation rather than through a managed socially just transformation.
This stands in direct contrast to the GST commitment to an “orderly” transition away from fossil fuels. Domestic roadmaps can help chart more stable coordinated pathways that reduce social disruption while contributing to geopolitical and economic stability.
Türkiye and Australia should show leadership as the upcoming COP hosts. For Türkiye, this is particularly urgent given the absence of a coal phase-out date. Price spikes for oil and gas have siphoned around $3 billion from ordinary people and businesses in Türkiye in the first two months of the current crisis alone, calculations by 350.org show.
Australia faces a different credibility challenge. While positioning itself as a renewable energy powerhouse, it also remains one of the world’s largest fossil fuel expanders and is facing calls to tax its fossil fuel exports.
Watch CHN’s webinar: From Santa Marta to Bonn – where next for the fossil fuel transition?
According to Oil Change International, four Global North countries — the US, Canada, Norway and Australia — are responsible for nearly 70% of projected new oil and gas expansion between 2025 and 2035, equivalent to around three times the annual emissions of all coal-fired power plants worldwide.
Paragraph 36 of the Mutirão decision agreed at COP30 already invites governments to submit implementation and investment plans for their national NDC climate plans. Domestic TAFF roadmaps could become a practical way to operationalise that commitment, while also creating space for countries to define national pathways aligned with their own development priorities and constraints.
This matters because some of the most politically difficult elements of the first Global Stocktake in 2023 — especially the transition away from fossil fuels and halting deforestation — are where implementation lags furthest behind rhetoric. Governments continue to endorse transition goals but must more seriously address the harder questions: how workers are protected, how grids are modernised, how industries adapt, and how countries finance the shift while maintaining economic development and energy access.
Roadmaps for coordination and clarity
Domestic TAFF roadmaps can help answer those questions. They allow governments to coordinate internally across ministries and externally with investors, development banks and international partners. They can provide clarity on timelines, infrastructure needs, financing gaps, industrial strategy and social protection. Most importantly, they can help ensure the transition is not only fast, but fair.
The first countries willing to develop credible transition roadmaps could also help rebuild international trust. They would demonstrate that a managed phase-out of fossil fuels can support economic development, create jobs, improve energy security and expand energy access rather than undermine them. That’s the spirit of the Santa Marta conference that now needs to be emulated.
This is also becoming a geo-economic issue. In a world increasingly shaped by bilateral deals, industrial competition and fragmented trade relations, countries with credible transition plans will be more insulated from global fossil fuel shocks, far better positioned to negotiate on debt restructure and cancellation, climate finance, technology transfer and industrial policy. Governments that know where they are going can shape the transition to their advantage.
Leaders’ support needed
COP31 also presents Türkiye and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan with a rare diplomatic opportunity. At a moment of growing fragmentation between North and South — and between East and West — Türkiye could utilise its role as a middle power and serve as a bridge-builder capable of restoring high-level political momentum to the climate process and convene a leaders summit with wide attendance.
Leaders attending COP31 should help countries agree that TAFF roadmaps are a practical way to turn climate promises into real action. These roadmaps would reflect national realities while identifying needs for international and regional cooperation, including on financing and barriers to transition such as debt burdens, technology access and trade rules.
Ultimately, roadmaps for transitioning away from fossil fuels are roadmaps for economic resilience, energy security, and political stability in a far more volatile world.
