Some argue that the observed decline is misleading because teenage socializing happens digitally now. We agree that digital interactions like texting or coordinated online gaming can be a form of socializing. But spending time together in person offers benefits that are harder to get online, giving teens practice reading other people’s cues and working toward shared goals, such as on a sports team or at a job.
In any case, teens don’t see each other in-person nearly as much as they used to. What to make of the data?
First, we are highly skeptical of the 2025 rebound shown in Figure 4. The sample that year was limited by the federal government shutdown, making it noisier than usual. On top of that, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reweighted the time diaries so that those collected between November 12 and December 30 represent the entire fourth quarter. Kids are on holiday break during much of that window, so allowing late November and December to serve as a proxy for an ordinary October likely inflated the estimate.
Thus, our mutual near-term prediction is that in-person time comes back down this year, in 2026, to roughly 50 minutes per day.
But then what?
Sean makes a cautious case for a partial rebound to 80 minutes a day by 2036. He thinks demand for “ordinary human experiences” will rise as more of life becomes mediated through AI. A kid born in 2021 will turn 15 in 2036, so there’s plenty of time for any new Haidt-inspired norms around solo phone use to take effect. Sean also expects the effects of Covid, which appear to have driven a further plunge in 2020, to fade. Even now, younger people are going to the movies more.
Mike expects a larger rebound than Sean, to 120 minutes a day by 2036. Maybe his optimism is due to his 18-year-old’s lovely five-day Vermont camping trip with four pals, only one of whom had ever camped, and therefore chopped all the firewood.
What’s more, if fewer teens have part-time jobs, some of that time will be spent with friends.
