A slightly below-average Atlantic hurricane season is likely in 2026, the Colorado State University hurricane forecasting team said in its latest seasonal forecast, issued April 9.
Led by Phil Klotzbach, the Colorado team forecast 13 named storms, six hurricanes, two major hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE, of 90 (73% of average). That’s lower than the long-term averages for the period 1991-2020 of 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, 3.2 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 123. Last year, there were 13 named storms, five hurricanes, four major hurricanes, and an ACE of 133. The last Atlantic hurricane season with an ACE below the 90 units predicted for this year was the strong El Niño year of 2015, which had an ACE of 63.
The outlook predicted lower odds of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. than usual: 32% (long-term average: 43%). It gave a 15% chance of a major hurricane hitting the East Coast or Florida Peninsula (long-term average: 21%), and a 20% chance for the Gulf Coast (long-term average: 27%). The Caribbean was forecast to have a 35% chance of having at least one major hurricane pass through (long-term average: 47%).
The Colorado State University forecast uses a statistical model honed from more than 40 years of past Atlantic hurricane statistics, plus dynamical model output from four groups: ECMWF (the European model), UKMET (the U.K. Met Office), JMA (the Japan Meteorological Agency), and CMCC (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici).
El Niño conditions are likely this fall
The Colorado team cited one main reason for their below-average 2026 forecast: El Niño conditions are likely this fall. The El Niño and La Niña patterns in the tropical Pacific influence weather across the world.
La Niña conditions ended in March, and an El Niño watch continues in the Eastern Pacific, NOAA reported in its April 9 monthly discussion of the state of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, or ENSO.
ENSO-neutral conditions are currently present, and an El Niño is likely to emerge in May-July 2026 (61% chance), persisting through at least the end of 2026. An unusually strong westerly wind burst is now crossing the equatorial Pacific, and that could help put El Niño conditions in place toward the earlier side of current predictions.
Read: A powerhouse El Niño event appears to be brewing for 2026-27
According to the Columbia University International Research Institute for Climate and Society forecast issued March 19, the August-September-October peak of hurricane season has a 77% chance of El Niño, a 21% chance of ENSO-neutral, and a 2% chance of La Niña. NOAA is giving a 25% chance of very strong El Niño conditions developing.
El Niño conditions favor a slower-than-usual Atlantic hurricane season as a result of an increase in the upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic that can tear storms apart, known as higher vertical wind shear. In contrast, when neutral or La Niña conditions are present, an active hurricane season becomes more likely. Since 1950, U.S. landfalls by major hurricanes have been more than twice as likely during a La Niña year compared to an El Niño year.
As is its practice, the CSU team included this standard disclaimer:
“As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.”
Analog years
Four years with similar preseason (January, February, and March) oceanic conditions (relatively warm ocean temperatures across the main development region for hurricanes, between 10°-20°N, from the coast of Africa to Central America), along with moderate to strong El Niño conditions by hurricane season, were selected as “analog” years that the 2026 hurricane season may resemble:
- 2006 (10 named storms, five hurricanes, and two major hurricanes)
- 2009 (Nine named storms, three hurricanes, and two major hurricanes)
- 2015 (11 named storms, four hurricanes, and two major hurricanes)
- 2023 (20 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes)
The average activity for these years was 12.5 named storms, 4.8 hurricanes, 2.3 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 87 – slightly below-average levels of activity. Among the analog years, 2006 had no landfalling hurricanes anywhere in the Atlantic; 2009 had one hurricane landfall (Cat 1 Ida in Nicaragua); 2015 had one landfalling hurricane (Cat 4 Joaquin in the Bahamas); and 2023 had two landfalling hurricanes (Cat 3 Idalia in the Florida Big Bend and Cat 1 Tammy in Barbuda in the Lesser Antilles).
A caveat: April hurricane season forecasts have little or no ‘skill’
On average, April forecasts of hurricane season activity have had no “skill,” or even negative skill, when computed using the Mean Square Skill Score. This does not mean a particular April forecast will be incorrect — just that, on average, a forecast simply using climatology would do as well or better. April forecasts must deal with the so-called spring predictability barrier. In April, the El Niño/La Niña phenomenon commonly undergoes a rapid change from one state to another, making it difficult to predict whether El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions will be in place for the coming hurricane season. This year, there appears to be higher-than-usual spring confidence that El Niño will be in place by hurricane season.
The next CSU forecast, due June 10, is worth close attention, as late May/early June forecasts have shown considerable skill over the years. NOAA is set to issue its first seasonal hurricane forecast for 2025 in late May.
Read: How to make an evacuation plan
Bob Henson contributed to this post.
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