Hurricane warnings are up for the Big Island of Hawaii, and other watches and warnings are in effect across the state, as Tropical Storm Lala, tracking over unusually warm waters, threatens to become the state’s first landfalling hurricane in more than 30 years – and only the second one on record. Lala officially became a tropical storm on Thursday over the central Pacific.
The big story with this system will be the potential for life-threatening flooding, as periods of heavy rain will move into the Big Island at the start of the weekend, exacerbated by the strong onshore winds pushing up the east-facing slopes around Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea.
Although several systems this year have moved from the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean into the central Pacific, Lala is the year’s first “homegrown” system in this region. Unlike the Atlantic and eastern Pacific and their rotating lists of names, the central Pacific has only a single list of names used from one year to the next, since conditions are usually less favorable for development.
As of 5 a.m. HST (11 a.m. EDT) Friday morning, Lala was located about 420 miles (680 kilometers) southeast of Hilo, moving west-northwest at around 12 mph (19 km/h). The minimum central pressure had dropped slightly to 997 mb. Top sustained winds were holding at 60 mph (95 km/h), but conditions will become favorable for Lala to reach hurricane status before arriving at or near the southern end of the Island of Hawaii, informally known as the Big Island, on Saturday. The only limiting factor for the system’s strengthening is dry air in the midlevels of the atmosphere, which could slow its intensification.
The official track issued by the National Hurricane Center early Friday morning shows that Lala’s center will most likely stay as far as 50 miles south of the Big Island’s southern tip, Ka Lae – also the southernmost point in the United States – but an onshore track is well within the margin of the cone of uncertainty shown in Figure 1. Regardless of the uncertainty in Lala’s exact track, powerful onshore winds will affect much of the island.
Steering currents around a center of high pressure to the north will keep Lala on a steady course through Sunday well south of the smaller Hawaiian islands, with some fluctuations in speed and intensity possible.
As it moves south of Maui, Lala is likely to encounter drier air in the midlevels of the atmosphere, as well as increased wind shear, which will likely cause Lala to weaken into a tropical storm. Plenty of moisture will likely remain north of the system, though, bringing several rounds of rain and the risk of gale-force winds across the smaller islands. This is true even if Lala’s center stays well to the south, as Lala’s tropical-storm winds extend up to 170 miles (275 km) northeast from the storm’s center. Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe were under a tropical storm warning as of Friday morning, and a tropical storm watch extended to islands farther northwest, including Oahu, Kauai, and Niihau.
By early next week, Lala will still be moving over warm waters in the central Pacific. Sea surface temperatures along Lala’s track will approach 28 degrees Celsius (82 degrees Fahrenheit), which is about 0.5°C (1°F) above average for mid-August. Climate Central’s Climate Shift Index shows that the above-average ocean water temperatures along Lala’s path were made 10-20 times more likely by climate change.
Moreover, strong upper-level wind shear of 10-15 knots could ease slightly, allowing Lala to regain some strength early next week and perhaps attain (or regain) hurricane strength well west of Hawaii.
Lala’s potential impacts
A hurricane warning is in effect for Hawaii’s Big Island. Winds are expected to be strongest across the mountains. Hurricane-force winds could arrive as early as Friday night across the eastern portion of the Big Island. Conditions will deteriorate quickly, so residents are urged to finish preparations by Friday night. Across Maui, tropical storm winds could begin by Saturday afternoon and quickly deteriorate throughout the evening.
Rainfall will be the biggest impact from this system across the area, especially early in the event. Rainfall totals could range between eight and 12 inches across Maui and the Big Island, with some areas east of the highest peaks of the Big Island potentially accumulating up to 25 inches.
Rain will be more sporadic but still heavy at times across the rest of the smaller islands. Anything from four to six inches is possible, with some isolated areas receiving up to eight inches. Please stay away from flooded areas, as this amount of rain may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides.
Flooding rainfall could be a major concern for Hawaii with #Lala. High precipitable water values shown below could support intense rainfall rates.
This deep tropical moisture interacting with the Big Island’s terrain could produce 16-20 inches of rain, locally over 2 FEET. #HIwx pic.twitter.com/EjUd2Xa06H
— Collin Gross (@CollinGrossWx) August 14, 2026
Storm surge, especially across the eastern portion of the Big Island and around the time of high tide, could be as high as three feet. Seas will remain very dangerous across the entire island chain as Lala moves through the area. Waves could be as high as 20 feet from Friday night through Saturday evening across offshore waters. By Sunday night, seas will gradually subside, and by Monday, they will drop to between six and 14 feet.
Hawaii hurricane history
Lala is the second tropical cyclone to affect Hawaii this year. Hurricane Fausto, the first hurricane of the 2026 eastern North Pacific season, reached Category 2 strength in mid-July as it tracked westward into the central Pacific toward Hawaii. High wind shear, dry air, and cooler water temperatures weakened the hurricane, and on July 29, Fausto degenerated to a remnant low with 35 mph winds as it passed 285 miles (460 km) north of Hilo on the Island of Hawaii. According to insurance broker Aon, Fausto caused negligible damage in Hawaii.
The most recent damaging tropical cyclone to affect Hawaii was Category 1 Hurricane Hone, which passed about 50 miles south of South Point on the Big Island on August 25, 2024. Hone’s top sustained winds were 85 mph, and the storm’s heavy rains and battering waves caused about $8 million in damage to the state.
Two named storms affected Hawaii in 2023. Tropical Storm Calvin passed about 100 miles to the south of the Big Island on July 18-19, with sustained winds of 45-50 mph. Calvin brought widespread rainfall amounts of two to four inches to the Island of Hawaii and Maui, which caused minor flooding and scattered power outages. A few locations on the Island of Hawaii received rains of five to seven inches, according to the final report from the National Weather Service.
On August 8-9, 2023, Category 4 Hurricane Dora passed about 700 miles to the south of Hawaii. Initial speculation was that Dora might have increased the winds that fanned one of the deadliest wildfires in world history – the Maui fires of 2023, which killed 102 people – although a study released in the journal Weather and Forecasting indicates a more important factor may have been an unusually strong subtropical ridge that extended from north of Hawaii to the U.S. Southwest. That ridge helped intensify the east-to-west trade winds that were forced over the Maui mountains; in turn, as those strong winds descended toward Lahaina, warming and drying as they flowed downslope, they fanned flames across an area thick with nonnative grasses that had dried out in the summer heat. For more background, see our August 2023 write-up on the situation, “What caused the deadly Hawaii wildfires?“
Simply making landfall in Hawaii is no small achievement for a tropical cyclone. Only five named systems at tropical storm strength or higher have made landfall in Hawaii since 1949:
- Hurricane Dot made landfall on Kauai as a Category 1 hurricane on August 6, 1959, about two weeks before Hawaii gained statehood. Dot caused 6 indirect deaths and $6 million in damage (1959 dollars).
- Hurricane Iniki made landfall in Kauai as a Category 4 hurricane on September 11, 1992, killing 6 and causing $1.8 billion in damage (1992 dollars.)
- Tropical Storm Iselle made landfall along the southeast shore of the Island of Hawaii, arriving as a 60-mph tropical storm on August 8, 2014. Iselle killed one person and did $79 million in damage (2014 dollars).
- Tropical Storm Darby made landfall along the southeast shore of the Island of Hawaii on July 23, 2016, with sustained winds of 40 mph. Damage was minimal and there were no deaths.
- Tropical Storm Olivia made landfall on the north shore of both Maui and Lanai on September 12, 2018, with sustained winds of 45 mph. Olivia was blamed for $25 million in damage (2018 dollars).
In addition, Post-Tropical Cyclone Linda hit Molokai on August 23, 2021, with sustained winds of 40 mph. There were no reports of casualties or damage from Linda.
As defined by the National Hurricane Center, landfall requires the center of a tropical cyclone to pass over land. Other hurricanes and tropical storms have done significant damage to Hawaii without making a direct landfall, most notably Lane in 2018 ($250 million 2018 dollars in damage) and Iwa in 1992 ($312 million 1992 dollars in damage). A 2016 modeling study found that we could expect to see a significant increase in hurricanes near Hawaii in coming decades due to climate change; see also Jeff Masters’ August 2014 post, “Climate Change May Increase the Number of Hawaiian Hurricanes.
Bob Henson contributed to this post.
This <a target=”_blank” href=”https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/08/hawaiian-islands-brace-for-lala-this-weekend/”>article</a> first appeared on <a target=”_blank” href=”https://yaleclimateconnections.org”>Yale Climate Connections</a> and is republished here under a <a target=”_blank” href=”https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/”>Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License</a>.<img src=”https://i0.wp.com/yaleclimateconnections.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ycc-favicon.png?resize=100%2C100&ssl=1″ style=”width:1em;height:1em;margin-left:10px;”>
<img id=”republication-tracker-tool-source” src=”https://yaleclimateconnections.org/?republication-pixel=true&post=141307&ga4=1401ERFF5Q” style=”width:1px;height:1px;”><script> PARSELY = { autotrack: false, onload: function() { PARSELY.beacon.trackPageView({ url: “https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/08/hawaiian-islands-brace-for-lala-this-weekend/”, urlref: window.location.href }); } } </script> <script id=”parsely-cfg” src=”//cdn.parsely.com/keys/yaleclimateconnections.org/p.js”></script>
