Historic Super Typhoon Dolphin hits Category 5 strength in the Northwest Pacific » Yale Climate Connections

by Irene Sans, Jeff Masters and Bob Henson, Yale Climate Connections
July 30, 2026

Less than 72 hours after Hurricane Genevieve rocketed to Category 5 strength in the eastern Pacific Ocean, yet another Cat 5 tropical cyclone is flexing its muscle, this one further west. Super Typhoon Dolphin poses no immediate threat to land, at least through the weekend, but it is a storm worth watching because it is both historic – in fact, Dolphin is the strongest typhoon on record to develop so close to the International Date Line – and entirely consistent with the onset of a strong El Niño event (see below).

Dolphin peaked with maximum sustained winds of 165 mph (270 km/h) on Thursday morning local time, with a 910 mb central pressure, after an explosive intensification cycle that lasted less than 36 hours. On Monday, this system was only a tropical storm, but very warm ocean waters between 84°F and 86°F (29°C to 30°C), combined with low wind shear of 5 to 10 knots, allowed it to rapidly intensify into a super typhoon. A super typhoon is defined as a typhoon with sustained winds of at least 150 mph (240 km/h), equivalent to at least a strong Category 4 hurricane. (The International Date Line, or the 180th meridian, is used to distinguish typhoons from hurricanes in the North Pacific.)

Super Typhoon Dolphin is currently being guided by the western periphery of the subtropical ridge centered west of Hawaii. Its west-northwest motion at around 13 mph (20 km/h) is expected to continue as the subtropical ridge remains nearly stationary over the next five days. Later in the forecast period, another high-pressure system is expected to strengthen over the Sea of Japan. This ridge will become the primary steering mechanism for Dolphin. As the cyclone begins to move under the influence of this high-pressure system, it will likely enter cooler waters and a less favorable environment for maintaining its intensity. Nevertheless, this storm should continue to be monitored closely, as it could enter the East China Sea by late next week.

Strong and staying strong this week

The forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) calls for Super Typhoon Dolphin to maintain its current intensity through at least the weekend. The cyclone is expected to fluctuate between strong-typhoon and super-typhoon status, with maximum sustained winds remaining around 160 mph (260 km/h). This is the third super typhoon of the western North Pacific season.

Dolphin was able to intensify so quickly in part because of its relative compactness. As of Wednesday night, hurricane-force winds extended outward about 52 miles (83 km) from the eye in nearly all directions – which is actually a bit on the smaller side for a major tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extended more than 100 miles (160 km) from the center across most quadrants. Dolphin’s wind field will likely expand gradually as the typhoon matures. By the weekend, tropical-storm-force winds could extend as far as 110 miles (177 km) from the center.

As the wind field gradually expands, and as the cyclone encounters slightly cooler waters and possibly some dry-air intrusion, Dolphin is expected to weaken very slowly. By the end of the current forecast period, which extends through next Tuesday morning, the system should be noticeably weaker, likely fluctuating between Category 2 and 1.

Beyond the weekend

The sparsely populated Ogasawara Islands could experience a strong typhoon by Monday, with JTWC predicting Dolphin will be a Cat 3 as it approaches the southern portion of the island chain. By then, Dolphin would still be more than 620 miles (1,000 km) south of Tokyo, Japan. However, the system is expected to remain well south of mainland Japan throughout next week before likely moving near the Nansei Islands (Ryukyu Islands) and eventually into the East China Sea, as shown by the forecast from the Google DeepMind model (one of the top recent models for tropical cyclone track prediction).

Long-range forecast models show Dolphin continuing on a generally westward track through much of next week while maintaining intensity equivalent to a Category 1 or Category 2 hurricane. Once the cyclone enters the East China Sea, it is expected to remain at Category 1 or 2 strength as it moves closer to eastern China. Dolphin’s wind field is expected to expand considerably, making it a more dangerous storm surge threat.

This year’s Category 5 storms to date

Dolphin is the planet’s fifth Category 5 tropical cyclone of 2026. The others to date:

• Tropical Cyclone Horacio, 160 mph (260 km/h) winds, February 23, over the remote South Indian Ocean. Horacio did not affect any land areas.
• Super Typhoon Sinlaku, 185 mph (295 km/hr) winds, April 12, southeast of Guam. Sinlaku made landfall over the U.S. Northern Mariana Islands on April 14, with the large eye of the storm passing over both Tinian and Saipan islands simultaneously. According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Sinlaku was a Category 4 with sustained winds of 145 mph (230 km/hr) at landfall. Sinlaku killed 17 and did about $1.5 billion in damage to the Northern Mariana Islands and Guam. Sinlaku was the 10th Category 4 or 5 tropical cyclone to hit a U.S. state or territory in the past 10 years; that’s as many Cat 4 and Cat 5 landfalls as the U.S. Gulf and Atlantic coast suffered over the prior 57 years.
• Super Typhoon Bavi, 180 mph (285 km/h) winds, July 5, a long-track typhoon over the northwest Pacific. The center of Bavi passed about 2 miles north of Rota Island in the U.S. Northern Mariana Islands on July 5 when it was at peak strength, with the large eye of the storm completely encompassing the island. The mayor of the island described it as being destroyed “in every aspect.” Passing well north of the Philippines as a Category 1 storm several days later, Bavi triggered heavy rains and landslides that killed 23 people and left 18 missing across the Philippines. Bavi hit China as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph (150 km/h) winds on July 12. Technically, we can’t credit Bavi for making landfall in Rota (and thus the U.S.), since the center of the eye passed 2 miles north of the island. But regardless of technicalities, Bavi annihilated Rota.
• Hurricane Genevieve, 160 mph (260 km/h) winds, July 27, over the remote Northeast Pacific off the coast of Mexico.

El Niño supercharges Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone seasons in the Pacific

Dolphin is the classic Northwest Pacific super typhoon one would expect to see when the ocean-atmosphere system is moving into a very strong El Niño event, as is currently the case. The very strong El Niño year of 1997 saw 11 super typhoons in the Northwest Pacific, with a record 10 Cat 5s, and a record accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 594. That year also featured two Cat 5s in the Northeast Pacific off the coast of Mexico, bringing the final tally of global Cat 5s to 12 — an all-time global record for most Cat 5s in a year (2^nd place: 11 in 2018). During the record-setting year of 1997, the fifth Cat 5 globally didn’t arrive until August 12, when Typhoon Winnie hit 160 mph winds over the open Northwest Pacific. Accurate global satellite data for estimating tropical cyclone intensity goes back to 1982.

Typhoons tend to form farther east, away from Asia, during an El Niño episode because of warmer waters in the Central Pacific. Thus, El Niño-year typhoons take longer tracks over water before recurving or hitting Asia, resulting in a greater chance of reaching Category 5 intensity. El Niño also brings above-average warmth to the waters, boosting Cat 5 odds.

Over the 79 years of Joint Typhoon Warning Center monitoring through 2025, there have been 317 super typhoons — defined as having maximum sustained 1-minute average winds of at least 150 mph (240 km/hr) — with an average frequency of around four per year. Most of these reach the Cat 5 threshold (winds of at least 156 mph).

The 1990-2025 average yearly number of Category 5 storms globally was 5.3; there were five in 2025 (Hurricanes Melissa, Erin, and Humberto in the Atlantic; Typhoon Ragasa in the Northwest Pacific; and Cyclone Errol in the South Indian). As seen in Fig. 3, the number of Cat 5s has increased globally since accurate global satellite data became available in 1982 (this increase is statistically significant at the 99.5% level). Climate change is expected to increase the proportion of tropical cyclones reaching Category 4 or 5 strength.

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