Gender identity remains a third rail for Democrats, and Republicans will continue to push hard on it in the run-up to 2028. Referenda requiring that school sports or facilities be organized by biological sex were on the ballot in Arizona, Nebraska, Colorado, and Washington, and all four passed (or look poised to pass) amidst big Democratic wins.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
It’s clear that most voters (even on a blue night in blue states) are for organizing school sports and locker rooms on the basis of biological sex. The margins, though, were smaller than I’d have expected. While this is often characterized as a 70–30 issue, the results were more like 55–45. Now, this could mean that public sentiment is shifting, but it’s probably more accurate to say they reflect a blue tsunami and cooling temperatures.
Look, the ferocious backlash on gender identity emerged in response to radical social change being foisted upon a dubious public by crusading gender activists. Mainstream media, Democratic officeholders, and education leaders dismissed legitimate concerns as hateful, transphobic bigotry. It felt like a massive experiment in gaslighting, building to a furious yawp that culminated in Trump’s famous 2024 “they/them” ad.
Things have cooled. Now, The New York Times is open to questioning the science behind gender dysphoria, and education leaders acknowledge there are legitimate concerns. Democratic candidates won while adopting middle-ground positions, and more than two dozen states have enacted policies requiring sports participation reflect biological sex. Republicans tried to rerun the 2024 playbook. In Texas, they spent a fortune tagging James Talarico as “Talafreako.” But there’s little evidence such attacks landed, with Talarico winning by double digits. The issue’s resonance in 2024 was fueled by the frustration of parents who’d felt bullied, silenced, and gaslit by woke activists and their allies. Now that Woke 1.0 has subsided, so has the backlash.
