May 2026 was the world’s second-warmest May on record » Yale Climate Connections

by Jeff Masters, Yale Climate Connections
June 10, 2026

May 2026 was the second-warmest May in analyses of global weather data going back to 1850, behind only May 2024, NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, or NCEI, reported June 10. NASA and the European Copernicus Climate Change Service rated May 2026 as the second-warmest May. The global-average temperature for January-May 2026 was the fourth-highest on record, NOAA said.

According to NCEI’s statistical analysis, there is about a 95% chance that 2026 will rank among the four warmest years on record. This statistics-based product is not designed to explicitly take El Niño or La Niña events into account, so with a global-atmosphere-warming El Niño event about to unfold, the odds may be higher still.

The world recorded its highest burned area for any January-May during the past 15 years, with more than 150 million hectares burned globally – 22% higher than the previous high set in 2020 and about double the recent average for this period. In the U.S., the burned area so far in 2026 has been the highest for at least the past 10 years — about double the 10-year average — according to the National Interagency Fire Center. About a third of that burned area resulted from massive wildfires that struck Nebraska in March.

Northern Hemisphere snow cover during May 2026 was below average but did not rank among the top 10 lowest extents since records began in 1967, according to the Rutgers Global Snow Lab. Snow-covered area across the western United States was 49% of the average for May, ranking last in the 26-year satellite record. For the entire winter, snowfall was much below average over the western U.S., but above average over most of western Canada. The running 12-month average snowfall for the contiguous U.S. is currently at a record low.

Second-warmest spring for the U.S.

As discussed in our Monday post, March through May 2026 ranked as the second-warmest spring in records going back to 1895 for the contiguous U.S., according to NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information. Across the past 131 years, only 2012 had a warmer spring, and May 2026 was the 28th-warmest May for the contiguous United States. Looking at multi-month periods ending in May 2026, it has been the hottest weather on record for all intervals of four months or longer going back at least five years in the contiguous U.S., according to NOAA.

Odds of a strong El Niño event increasing

An El Niño watch continues in the Eastern Pacific, NOAA reported in its May 14 monthly discussion of the state of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. (NOAA’s next update is scheduled less than a day from now, on June 11.) NOAA predicted in May that an El Niño was likely to emerge in May-July 2026 (82% chance), persisting through at least the end of 2026.

As of NOAA’s weekly ENSO update issued June 8, the ocean and atmosphere over the tropical Pacific still reflected ENSO-neutral conditions, but warmer-than-average waters had already spread across most of the equatorial Pacific, with the weekly average sea surface temperatures in the benchmark Niño 3.4 region at 0.7°C above average, above the 0.5°C threshold for a weak El Niño event.

According to the Columbia University International Research Institute for Climate and Society forecast issued May 19, the August-September-October peak of hurricane season has a 98% chance of El Niño, an 2% chance of ENSO-neutral, and a 0% chance of La Niña. NOAA is giving a 27% chance of strong El Niño conditions being in place during peak hurricane season and a 50% chance for the October-December period. El Niño conditions tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity through an increase in wind shear. This year’s imminent El Niño event has characteristics similar to how the “super” El Niño event of 1997 looked at this time of year. (Note that there is no formally accepted definition of a “super El Niño,” but the term is often used loosely in media to refer to an event classified as “very strong,” with Niño 3.4 values of 2°C or greater.)

Arctic and Antarctic sea ice: second-lowest May extents on record

According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, Arctic sea ice extent during May 2026 was the second-lowest in the 48-year satellite record, behind only 2016. The Arctic had warmer-than-average conditions in May, though not ranking within the top 10 warmest Mays.

Antarctic sea ice extent in May 2026 was also the second-lowest on record, behind only 2016. The Antarctic had its 16th-warmest May since 1850.

Notable global heat and cold marks for May 2026

Weather records expert Maximiliano Herrera has documented the records listed below in May. Follow him on Bluesky: @extremetemps.bsky.social or X: @extremetemps.

– Hottest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: 51.5°C (124.7°F) at Dadu, Pakistan, May 28;
– Coldest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: -40.8°C (-41.4°F) at Summit, Greenland, May 3;
– Hottest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: 39.4°C (102.9°F) at Puerto Suarez, Bolivia, May 7; and
– Coldest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: -76.2°C (-105.2°F) at Concordia, Antarctica, May 30.

Two all-time national/territorial heat records beaten or tied as of the end of May

• Chad: 48.0°C (118.4°F) at Faya, May 19 (tie)
• Bahrain: 47.6°C (117.7°F) at Bahrain Airport, May 29

One all-time national/territorial cold record beaten or tied as of the end of May

• Cuba: 0°C (32.0°F) at Indio Hatuey, February 3

Major weather stations in May: 11 all-time heat records, no all-time cold records

Among global stations with a record of at least 40 years, 11 set, not just tied, an all-time heat record in May, and no stations set an all-time cold record:

Dawei (Myanmar) max. 40.8°C, May 1
Ziguinchor (Senegal) max. 45.1°C, May 2
Ratlam (India) max. 46.5°C, May 12
Salina Cruz (Mexico) max. 42.3°C, May 20
Rajnandgaon (India) max. 47.0°C, May 21
Choluteca (Honduras) max. 43.1°C, May 21
Gorgan (Iran) max. 47.1°C, May 29
Sari (Iran) max. 47.1°C, May 29
Babulsar (Iran) max. 42.8°C, May 29
Garakhil (Iran) max. 45.8°C, May 29
Bahrain Airport (Bahrain) max. 47.6°C, May 29: New national record high for Bahrain

Thirty-one nations or territories have set monthly all-time heat records in 2026

• January (5): U.S. Virgin Islands, Saba, Sao Tome and Principe, Congo Brazzaville, Aruba
• February (7): French Southern Territories, Armenia, Iran, Turkmenistan, U.S. Virgin Islands, USA, Honduras
• March (6): U.S. Virgin Islands, Sao Tome and Principe, United States, Guyana, Somalia, French Southern Territories
• April (1): French Southern Territories
• May (12): Togo, Sao Tome and Principe, Honduras, Jersey, Guernsey, UK, Ireland, Luxembourg, Portugal, France, Andorra, Turkmenistan

Six nations or territories have set monthly all-time cold records in 2026

• January (1): Cocos Islands
• February (2): Bahamas, Belize
• March (2): Saba, Antarctica
• April (1): Algeria

Hemispherical and continental temperature records of 2026

Lowest May temperature in global history: -76.4°C (-105.5°F) at Vostok, Antarctica, May 25.

Bob Henson contributed to this post

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