Authorities in China and Nepal have agreed to share cross-border information about the risks of glacial lake outburst floods across the Tibetan region, in a first step that could be expanded to the national level in a joint effort to reduce deaths and damage.
The decision to collaborate came about a month after a lake that had formed on top of a glacier in China’s high mountains burst 35 kilometres upstream from the Rasuwagadhi border-point with Nepal. It sent water coursing down the Bhotekoshi River, devastating areas on both sides.
According to local officials, 11 people died in the July 8 disaster and 18 remain missing in Nepal, while 11 were swept away in China. The flash flood caused infrastructure losses worth around $100 million, including roads and houses, and has disrupted cross-border trade.
Before this latest disaster, the issue of sharing climate-related data between the two countries was mostly limited to discussions among Nepal’s Department of Hydrology and Meteorology and a few experts.
A year ago, after two lakes burst in Nepal, Climate Home News interviewed the head of that department, Jagadishwor Karmacharya, who warned that the Chinese government’s failure to provide information about the state of its glacial lakes was endangering mountain-dwellers in neighbouring Nepal.
Now, July’s flood has elevated the matter to a higher political level. Nepal’s federal government has decided to collaborate with China to ensure early warning and preparedness for future incidents as the planet warms.
Climate change is speeding up glacial melt around the world and boosting the threat from glacial lake outburst floods, known as GLOFs.
Cross-border danger
After visiting Rasuwaghadhi, officials with Nepal’s National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA) instructed all relevant agencies to carry out a detailed study of the causes of the sudden flood and to maintain continuous coordination with China to increase warning of, and protection from, future GLOFs.
Politicians have also formally demanded the establishment of an information-sharing mechanism between Nepal, China and India.
“In the Himalayan region, many glacial lakes are in dangerous conditions. If they burst, the impact can even reach India,” Bishwa Prakash Sharma, a member of parliament and general secretary of the Nepali Congress, told the House of Representatives on the day of the latest GLOF.
“Collaboration among the three countries is necessary. Starting an information-sharing system at the district level is good, but it is not enough,” he added.
On August 1 in Nyalam County, Tibet, Chinese government and police officers agreed to provide information on glacial lakes and the risk of flooding to their counterparts in Nepal’s Sindhupalchok District.
According to district police superintendent Rameshwor Karki, who attended the meeting, Nepali officials expressed serious concerns to their Chinese counterparts about the significant human casualties and economic losses suffered due to repeated GLOFs.
In response, the Chinese local authorities agreed to share information with their Nepali counterparts in the neighbouring district.
“In the Nyalam County of Tibet, there are more glacial lakes; their catchment area is in Nepal, and in case they outburst, it will impact Nepal,” Karki said. “So we demanded that…they install an early warning system and provide information to us based on early warning in WeChat and phone calls.”
Rapid changes underway in Himalayas
A UN-backed report from 2020 identified 47 potentially dangerous glacial lakes within the Koshi, Gandaki and Karnali river basins of Nepal, the Tibet Autonomous Region of China and India. Of these, 25 were in Chinese territory, 21 in Nepal, and one on the India border.
However, the glacial lakes that have caused recent outburst floods in Nepal, China, and India were not included on the list, suggesting that the risks are growing rapidly. In just the past three months, three glacial lakes have experienced GLOFs in Nepal.
According to researchers, in the case of July’s GLOF, ponds formed by water melting on top of the Supra glacier starting growing from March, and then began expanding rapidly in June.
They coalesced into a single huge lake measuring 638,000 square metres before bursting out into the valley below on July 8, draining a third of the lake area in just 24 hours.
Mohan Bahadur Chand, a Himalayan glaciologist and assistant professor at Kathmandu University, said the entire Himalayan region is experiencing the impacts of climate change. “There is a need for proper monitoring. If we can ensure effective monitoring, we can save human lives,” he told Climate Home News.
Madhav Sapkota, a member of parliament for Sindhupalchok District, told Climate Home News that Nepal should raise this issue during high-level talks between the leaders of Nepal, China and India at the end of August in China.
Sapkota said the process of establishing an early warning system in the Bhotekoshi areas had been raised with the Chinese embassy in Kathmandu. “We are looking for cooperation with China,” he said, “This automatic station will provide the message of floods in Nepal, but the plan is in its initial phase.”
Ranjan Kumar Dahal, an engineering geologist and associate professor at Nepal’s Tribhuvan University, said access to Himalayan glacial lakes needs to be studied, alongside the installation of automatic stations – including on Chinese territory – which can provide the data needed to calculate risks and help provide timely warnings.
“We depend on satellite pictures – it is not enough,” he said. “Where is the risk? What is the size of the glacier? What is the dam? What happened to the snow line? Equipment must be installed so that it can be heard from the ground.”
Early warning saves lives
Within Nepal, early warning systems have proven to be effective in saving lives during floods. International aid agency Practical Action first introduced an early warning system on the East Rapti River in 2001.
“At that time, there were no mobile phones or advanced technology to share messages,” recalled Gehendra Gurung, former head of Practical Action’s programme in Nepal. “Because floods occurred every year in the Rapti, we provided hand phones to people upstream. When it rained, they would call downstream communities, and warnings were then relayed through loudspeakers.”
With advanced technology, the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology can now provide rainfall and flood forecasts up to three days before they are due to happen. “We need similar information on transboundary rivers as well,” Gurung told Climate Home News.
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When the Bhotekoshi River flooded in July, early warning helped save many lives, limiting the death toll, according to Arjun Paudel, Rasuwa’s chief district officer.
“I was informed one hour before the flood entered the Nepal side through the border security, and immediately issued a notice and deployed a security force,” he said. “If we had not received any information, human casualties would have been about 200.”
He added that had there been an early warning system near the glacial lake, it would likely have been possible to avoid all deaths.
In early July, the UN’s Green Climate Fund approved a grant of around $36 million to help Nepal reduce the growing threat from GLOFs driven by climate change, through a project to protect communities, infrastructure and ecosystems, and reduce human and economic losses.
