Pinpointing the key size for rapid tropical cyclone intensification

Date:


This image, captured by the VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) on NOAA-21, shows Hurricane Beryl at 12:50 p.m. Atlantic Standard Time on June 30, 2024, during its rapid intensification. Credit: NASA Earth Observatory image by Michala Garrison, using VIIRS data from NASA EOSDIS LANCE, GIBS/Worldview, and the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS)

Accurately predicting how rapidly tropical cyclones (TCs) will intensify is a significant challenge due to the complex processes involved. Limited observations show that smaller TCs tend to intensify faster, suggesting a simple linear relationship between a cyclone’s inner-core size and its intensification rate.

However, a recent study led by Dr. Rong Fei from Wuxi University in China, and Prof. Yuqing Wang from the University of Hawaii at Manoa in the United States, challenges this assumption. Their research, published in Advances in Atmospheric Science on September 7, based on advanced numerical simulations, revealed that the relationship is actually nonlinear.

The study shows that tropical cyclones with either very large or very small inner-core sizes are less likely to undergo rapid intensification. Instead, there is a critical inner-core size that allows for the most rapid intensification. This size varies depending on factors such as latitude, sea surface temperature, and the cyclone’s initial strength.

The researchers discovered that this nonlinear relationship results from the balance between two competing processes: the inward transport of angular momentum, which aids intensification, and horizontal diffusion, which inhibits it.

These findings have important implications for improving TC intensity forecasts.

“Tropical cyclones can be disastrous, but for forecasters, we believe there is a sweet spot, or a key size, in cyclone growth. If we can identify this, it could lead to better predictions,” said Prof. Wang.

The research underscores the need to accurately determine a cyclone’s inner-core size in prediction models and suggests that early detection of the tropical cyclone structure could help estimate its potential for rapid intensification. However, the study also notes that further research is needed to understand how different environmental conditions might affect this critical inner-core size.

More information:
Rong Fei et al, On the Optimal Initial Inner-Core Size for Tropical Cyclone Intensification: An Idealized Numerical Study, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences (2024). DOI: 10.1007/s00376-024-3296-6

Citation:
Pinpointing the key size for rapid tropical cyclone intensification (2024, September 16)
retrieved 16 September 2024
from https://phys.org/news/2024-09-key-size-rapid-tropical-cyclone.html

This document is subject to copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study or research, no
part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only.



Share post:

Subscribe

Popular

More like this
Related

Emergency appeals seek urgent funds for Lebanon crisis

Major charities including ActionAid, Action Against Hunger, British...

NGOs urge ceasefire in Lebanon amid escalating Israel-Hezbollah conflict

Leading humanitarian groups on Thursday called for a...

Technical Writer – USAID BHA Uganda Resilience and Food Security Activity

Assignment Title: Technical Writer – USAID...