Dennis King’s new monograph, Channeling Cassandra, draws on his over 35 years of experience managing information about international humanitarian disasters, including his creation of ReliefWeb.com and overseeing USAID and US Department of State humanitarian information systems.
Published by the National Intelligence University, the monograph makes the important insight that while there have been endless gigabytes of humanitarian data and publications about information management, there has been relatively little on analysis, or interpreting data, particularly how evidence is used to make decisions.
This book refers to food aid as part of the response to crises of varying severity, and in response to food insecurity driven by climate change.
King asserts that “a keystone for improving humanitarian response is understanding complexity.” He gives examples of how analysis of humanitarian needs and options require a multi-disciplinary lens. He writes, “The problem is rarely a lack of information; it is the inability of decision-makers to process complexity and the tendency to prioritize political expediency over humanitarian early warning.”
“Humanitarian crises are non-linear systems where small changes in one variable (like a grain price or a local skirmish) can lead to catastrophic system-wide failures.”
King utilizes several historical and contemporary disasters to illustrate the “Intelligence-Policy Gap.” He recounts the 2004 Indian Ocean tsnumi, the 2010 Haiti Earthquake, and civil wars in South Sudan and Syria. 
He examines how the Ebola outbreak in west Africa that became a priority in 2014 had siloed intelligence and interpretation (medical vs. security) that inhibited a more unified response.
His recommendations are to adapt to complexity (monitor and adapt), facilitate decision-making, enhance alternative analyses and understand that technology can often introduce more noise than signal.
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