Russia’s new climate plan justifies the use of natural gas as a “transition fuel” by referencing the controversial loophole that it pushed to have included in the COP28 pledge on shifting away from fossil fuels.
In a landmark agreement at the Dubai climate summit two years, governments agreed to call on each other to work on “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems” as one of eight global efforts to fight climate change.
The hard-won agreement followed years of campaigning by climate activists and pro-climate action governments, and was hailed as “the beginning of the end” for the fossil fuel era by UN climate chief Simon Stiell.
But in a concession to some countries that were led by Russia – the world’s second-biggest gas producer, the COP28 agreement included a paragraph recognising that “transitional fuels can play a role in facilitating the energy transition while ensuring energy security”.
After it was agreed, Antigua and Barbuda negotiator Diann Black-Layne called it a “dangerous loophole” because natural gas is a fossil fuel “we need to transition away from”.
This year, all the signatories of the 2015 Paris Agreement are due to submit their emissions reduction targets up to 2035, and must say how their targets have “been informed by” the COP28 agreement.
Gas as “transition fuel”
Russia’s new climate plan says it is compatible with paragraph 28 of the COP28 agreement – which includes the language on transitioning away from fossil fuels – because Russia “continues to contribute to the global effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through national efforts to the greatest possible extent”.
It adds that the transition should be “based on independence and freedom of choice, the technological neutrality in designing the composition of energy mix and implementing climate policies in the energy sector”.
It then cites the COP28 language around transitional fuels to say Russia “uses natural gas as a transition fuel on the way towards a low-carbon economy” and gas “is the most environmentally friendly type of fuel among the types of conventional heat generation”.
While burning gas for power releases less emissions directly than burning coal, whether or not it emits less overall depends mostly on how much gas leaks as it is transported from where it is produced to where it is consumed, energy experts say.
Andreas Sieber, associate director of policy and campaigns at renewable energy advocacy group 350.org, said Russia was “wilfully misreading the global stocktake”.
“Rebranding methane-heavy, flare-ridden gas as a ‘transition fuel’ is spin, not science [which] props up a regime whose political economy runs on petro-rents and aggression,” Sieber told Climate Home News, adding “any credible transition runs on renewables and efficiency, not on Russia’s gas”.
Russian climate envoy Ruslan Edelgeriev told a UN climate summit last week the country’s commitment to reaching net zero by 2060 was firm and it “has moved from strategy to practical implementation”.
Russia is not the only government to play down the COP28 language on transitioning away from fossil fuels. Shortly after COP28, the Saudi energy minister said the agreement in Dubai was just an “a la carte menu” from which governments could choose.
And several African countries including Nigeria have set out plans to boost the use of fossil gas as a “transition fuel” in their updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
“Unambitious” target
Russia’s plan aims to reduce emissions to 33%-35% below their 1990 levels by 2035. This adds to existing targets to cut emissions by 30% on 1990 levels by 2030 and reach net zero – when the country emits no more than it absorbs – by 2060.
Russia’s emissions dropped by a quarter after the Soviet Union collapsed in the 1990s, making percentage reductions on 1990 levels much more achievable. US President Donald Trump noted this in a recent UN speech, saying “Russia was given an old standard that was easy to meet – 1990 standard”.
Climate Action Tracker (CAT), a nonprofit which assesses governments’ climate plans and policies, said Russia’s new 2035 target “does not increase ambition beyond business as usual” because Russia’s current policies already put it on course to cut emissions 35% by 2035.
CAT said that is at odds with a Paris Agreement principle that targets should reflect the “highest possible ambition”. “Russia’s 2035 target not only fails to reflect highest ambition, but does not increase ambition at all”, CAT said in an analysis on its website.
Russia says the target is in line with the Paris Agreement’s goal to hold a temperature increase to 2C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5C. CAT said, however, that it was only compatible with warming of 4C or more.
Under its climate plan, Russia says it will cut overall emissions through gas, nuclear, hydropower, renewables, carbon capture and storage and hydrogen. It will also aim to reduce the emissions which come from producing coal and oil, by capturing and selling gas rather than burning it as a waste product and by detecting and fixing pipeline leaks.
CAT also accused Russia of taking too much credit in its carbon accounting for the emissions absorbed by its huge forests. UN guidelines say countries should only take credit for forests which they actively manage, giving governments discretion to decide which land falls into this category.
Russia claims it manages nearly two-thirds of its vast forests, a percentage CAT said was “inflated”. Other heavily forested nations such as Guyana – which claims to be “carbon negative” – have been criticised by climate campaigners for similarly large assumptions about how much forest they manage.
