The period of March through May 2026 ranked as the second warmest spring in records going back to 1895 for the contiguous U.S., according to NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). Across the past 131 years, only 2012 had a warmer spring, said NCEI in its monthly analysis released on June 8.
The nationwide average temperatures for both spring 2012 (56.17 degrees Fahrenheit) and 2026 (55.79°F) are both more than 1.5°F above any rivals in the 131-year database. Spring 2026 was the hottest on record for Arizona, Colorado, Texas, and New Mexico, and 38 of the 48 contiguous states had a top-five hottest spring (see Fig. 2).
Exceptional warmth this year in both March (warmest on record) and April (3rd warmest on record) – including a phenomenal heat wave that brought summerlike temperatures in late March to much of the central and western U.S. – was only partially tempered by a less extreme but still unusually mild May (28th warmest on record). Over the longer-term, the contiguous U.S. remains locked in a long-term warming pattern fully in line with human-caused climate change.
The 12-month running average temperature for the Contiguous U.S. continues to be at a record high.
— Climatologist49 (@climatologist49.bsky.social) 2026-06-06T01:36:52.835Z
For the nation as a whole, spring 2026 ranked as the 37th driest on record, with a contiguous-U.S. average of 7.43 inches. After a parched March (8th driest), precipitation came in closer to average nationwide in April (46th wettest) and May (55th driest). However, that moisture was largely focused in the Midwest and Northeast. Michigan experienced its wettest spring on record, and it was a top-ten wettest spring for Wisconsin, Ohio, and Indiana. In contrast, it was a top-ten driest spring for Delaware, Maryland, North Carolina, and Virginia (see Fig. 3).
For the contiguous U.S. as a whole, May 2026 had the second-worst May drought conditions in contiguous U.S. history, with a Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) of -6.93. The only worse May occurred in the Dust Bowl year of 1934 (a PDSI of -7.03). The year 2026 has now had three of the top-10 months for worst contiguous U.S drought conditions since records began in 1895:
Aug 1934: -8.42
Jul 1934: -8.09
Mar 2026: -7.82
Apr 2026: -7.49
Sep 1934: -7.21
Jun 1934: -7.18
Oct 1934: -7.16
May 1934: -7.03
Jan 1940: -6.97
May 2026: -6.93
For much of the mountain West, more “no” than snow
The March heat wave dissolved any hope of a respectable snow season for large parts of the western United States. From April into early May, large swaths of the Rockies had record-low snow levels for the season, as much of what was already a skimpy snowpack melted weeks ahead of average.
12-month running average snowfall for the Contiguous U.S. It's as if warming temperatures mean less snowfall. Who knew?
— Climatologist49 (@climatologist49.bsky.social) 2026-06-06T17:17:32.849Z
Taking the edge off slightly was a notably moist period over parts of the Southwest in mid-May. That system brought some of the heaviest snowfall of the entire winter to areas that included the Front Range of Colorado (Fig. 5).
In California, substantial rain and mountain snow in midwinter helped to keep put of the state’s reservoirs in better shape than one might assume from the early melt-off from unusual warmth.
Most of northern and central California remain within about 10% of normal, while much of the south state is well above normal, mostly on the basis of heavy rains in Nov and Dec.
— Jan Null, CCM (@ggweather.bsky.social) 2026-06-01T02:54:08.045Z
The situation is considerably more dire across the Desert Southwest. Lake Powell and Lake Mead, which together serve thousands of farmers and millions of residents in six states, were both at less than 30 percent of capacity by early June.
“I think Front Range cities will be asked, whether nicely or not, to reduce their Colorado River diversions,” said Jeff Lukas, a water consultant and former @wwanews.bsky.social and CIRES scientist.sentinelcolorado.com/metro/colora…
The lack of remaining Southwest snowpack means runoff will be limited this summer, only worsening the situation. There’s at least some chance that the fast-evolving El Niño event – which has a greater-than-60-percent of reaching “strong” or “very strong” levels, according to NOAA’s intensity outlook issued in May – will bring generous moisture to the Southwest later this year into early 2027.
However, scientists at the University of Colorado cautioned in a June 1 press release that even a very wet year such as 2023 would likely forestall major long-term trouble by only about two years, while another dry year could lead to “run-of-the-river” conditions that would hasten depletion and lead to devastating consequences.
“Both scenarios demonstrate the need to adopt significant additional measures topermanently decrease consumptive uses across the entire basin,” the researchers warned.
Jeff Masters contributed to this post.
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