As the Pacific hurricane season ramps up, the Atlantic Basin seems to be waking up, but it will have trouble sustaining activity over the next few weeks, as wind shear remains strong over the Caribbean and few tropical waves could survive it. The Eastern Pacific continues as a tropical storm factory, though.
So far, the Eastern Pacific has developed five named tropical systems, all of which have been tropical storms. Although the fifth named storm of the season on average forms by July 23, which means we are ahead of schedule by about nine days, July 15 is on average the date when the second hurricane forms. There is still plenty of time to catch up and likely surpass that average, as the Eastern Pacific is forecast to be very active due to what could be the strongest El Niño ever. NOAA has forecast up to 22 named systems this season in the Eastern Pacific. If this materializes, the 2026 season could tie 1985 and 2015 for second place for the most named systems on record for this region, behind only the 27 named systems recorded in 1992.
For reference, the average Pacific hurricane season between 1991 and 2020 contained about 15 named storms, eight hurricanes, and four major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher), according to NOAA.
Tropical Storm Boris and Tropical Storm Cristina are the two systems to have made landfall. Boris made landfall in southern Mexico, causing torrential rains and flooding. Four people died, and damages were estimated at at least $81 million. Tropical Storm Cristina, although causing estimated damage of only about $150,000, also resulted in seven deaths in Central America due to rough seas, flooding, and a river overflow.
…and there are more disturbances in the open Eastern Pacific
One disturbance is well south of Hawaii and will stay away from the island chain. Closer to land but still not directly threatening, Tropical Storm Elida is gaining strength and is likely to become the first hurricane of the Eastern Pacific by Thursday evening. As Elida continues to intensify while moving over waters between 84 and 86 degrees F (29 and 30°C), the system is likely to remain a hurricane through Saturday before encountering drier air and increased wind shear, which should persist through early next week. Elida will remain far away from land and is not expected to pose a threat to the Baja California region. By early next week, Elida should become a post-tropical system as it travels over cooler waters.
Right in the same area where Elida is located, there is a high chance for another system to develop (see the hatched area in red in Fig. 1, surrounding Elida but unrelated to it). The system is expected to form several hundred miles south of the central-western Mexican coast, and it will likely become the next named system of the Eastern Pacific by early next week. The next name on the list is Fausto. Like Elida, future Fausto should stay away from Mexico.
The Atlantic hurricane season so far
Tropical Storm Arthur was very short-lived, being named and dissipating within 24 hours as it moved over the southeastern Texas coast before tracking across the Deep South on June 18. Although its life as a tropical storm was brief, Arthur caused more than $1 billion in damage across the Gulf Coast and four deaths. The damage was largely from flooding far to the east of the storm’s center at landfall. The town of Cottonport in central Louisiana set a preliminary state record for 24-hour rainfall with 29.06 inches (738 mm).
By July 17, we would, on average, already have two named systems. On average, the first hurricane develops by August 11, and the first major hurricane develops by September 1.
The National Hurricane Center has highlighted an area with low chances of development extending from the eastern Gulf of Mexico through north Florida and into the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas. As of Thursday morning, NHC still gives this area a 20% chance of tropical development during the next seven days.
There has been a weak frontal boundary draped across the Southeast and extending toward central Texas. Although this frontal boundary will dissipate, there could be enough energy left behind to ignite tropical development early next week. Regardless of whether this system develops, its general movement will likely be toward the north and northeast. Another important point is that even if the system does not develop, torrential rainfall could impact parts of western Florida, extending from the Big Bend region to the Tampa Bay area and inland. This is much-needed rain for this part of Florida because, even though the drought continues to shrink and improve, extreme drought is still present from the Big Bend region through the Gainesville area. There is also extreme drought encompassing much of the Tampa Bay area.
What could stop development across the eastern Gulf of Mexico is northerly wind shear and dry air filtering in from the north. Nonetheless, Florida will receive rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms throughout the weekend. If this system crosses northern Florida and emerges over the far western Atlantic near the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina, regardless of whether it is a named system (the next name on the list is Bertha), it is unlikely to fully develop into a tropical cyclone and will likely remain weak while hugging the U.S. East Coast. Regardless, areas extending from Apalachicola through the Tampa Bay area, especially along the immediate coast, should prepare for repeated rounds of storms that could produce up to six inches of rain throughout the weekend.
Desert 🌵 Or Deluge ⛈️?Here’s a little inside baseball ⚾️ Side by side model comparison of forecast rain. Most models are onboard the “Rain Train”! But the American GFS remains stubborn and just does not want to budge! 1/
— Jeff Berardelli (@weatherprof.bsky.social) 2026-07-15T22:11:13.205Z
If the system were to travel slightly farther west, it would remain over very warm waters and in a more favorable environment for development. As of now, very few models show this scenario, and although it is not impossible, we should continue to monitor it.
But wait! There are more signs of life in the Atlantic
A fresh tropical wave has emerged off Africa. A tropical disturbance is located southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands and has become slightly better organized over the last few hours. Any development during the coming days will be very slow as the system moves west-northwest at around 10 mph, heading into a very hostile environment that will likely prevent further development. The good news is that this system will remain over the open Atlantic and is not expected to affect land.
A sneak peek into the future months of the Atlantic hurricane season
Seasonal forecasts, such as Colorado State University’s latest update, have lowered their numbers, now calling for up to eight named systems the rest of this hurricane season due to the expected influence of a very strong El Niño during the peak months. It is very likely that some areas of the Atlantic Basin will be more favorable for storms than others.
During the peak of the season, very strong wind shear is likely to continue dominating the Caribbean and the tropical Atlantic. However, areas north of 20°N latitude, especially closer to the Southeast, the Eastern Seaboard, and the Gulf, could become more favorable for tropical development during August and September as wind shear is expected to be lower than average.
Keep in mind that the areas that are forecast to be most favorable for tropical development during the peak months of the season are much closer to land. This means that if any system were to develop, residents would have much less time to prepare for and monitor an approaching tropical storm or hurricane. These areas, especially over the Gulf, also contain very warm waters, which can often super-inject a storm, causing rapid intensification.
Bob Henson contributed to this post.
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