Electric Cars. Solar panels. Batteries. Wind turbines.
The technology transforming our global economy from the dirty fossil fuel era to a renewable-energy-powered future requires huge amounts of minerals such as copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, and so-called rare earths. By 2030, the world is likely to need twice as much of these critical minerals as are currently produced, according to the International Energy Agency.
Meeting this demand and ensuring that these minerals – often called critical minerals – can move from where they are mined and refined, to where they are needed to produce climate technology, is a key climate challenge. But it’s not just about saving the planet. Control of the supply and distribution of those minerals will also play a major role in determining the winners and losers of the economy of the future. Most of the world is betting heavily that the future will be powered by renewable energy.
In March 2026, global trade ministers met in the lush and hilly city of Yaoundé, Cameroon, to discuss the future of the global trade system. Critical minerals weren’t officially on the agenda, but on the sidelines, deals were being struck and alliances made.
“Technological transformation and the climate transition are reshaping how countries produce and compete,” said Grace Fu, Singapore’s minister of sustainability and environment and minister-in-charge of trade relations, in her opening statement.
What are critical minerals?
There’s no official definition of a critical mineral, but the term is generally used to describe minerals essential for economic or national security and that are at high risk of supply chain disruption. The lists usually include copper, lithium, nickel, and cobalt, but can also include graphite, manganese, and other minerals. Rare earths, a set of 17 metallic elements used in many high-tech products due to their magnetic properties, are also usually included. These aren’t actually that rare, but they’re hard to mine because they are often found in low concentrations.
The race for clean energy is the biggest driver of demand for critical minerals and concerns about shortages – in 2024 alone, sales of lithium grew 30%, largely to supply the electric car industry. A new electric car, and its powerful battery, contains lithium, copper, cobalt, and nickel, as well as rare earth metals such as neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium. Solar panels, wind turbines, and electrical grids require large amounts of copper.
Access to critical minerals a source of global tension
More than 72% of global trade still takes place under rules set by the World Trade Organization, which were designed in part to avoid trade tensions. But the United States and other countries are increasingly disregarding that rule book for economic or security reasons, including to secure access to critical minerals. This has raised fears that the system as a whole could collapse, concerns that were heightened when ministers left Cameroon without agreement on most of the major issues on the agenda.
Despite the Trump administration’s hostility to renewable energy, the United States is increasingly worried about access to critical minerals. China dominates the global critical mineral supply chain – especially the crucial step of refining raw materials into minerals usable for manufacturers. The U.S. and other major economies worry that China could restrict supply or that trade is vulnerable to global shocks such as wars or pandemics if it is concentrated to heavily in a small number of countries or locations.
To address these concerns, the United States announced “Project Vault,” a $12 billion effort to build stockpiles of critical minerals, to ensure the country can withstand supply chain disruptions. But it’s also trying to leverage aid money and trade tools such as tariffs to secure access to them, often in ways critics say violate the WTO trade rules. The New York Times reported, for example, that the U.S. government was considering demanding preferential access to Zambian minerals as a condition for providing H.I.V. and other health aid.
Other major economies are also trying to shore up their supplies. On the eve of the WTO meeting, the European Union and Australia signed a free trade deal that could strengthen cooperation on critical minerals.
Developing countries, on the other hand, especially African countries rich in mineral resources, see an opportunity in the scramble for critical minerals to attract investment. But they want to ensure such investment creates jobs and improves access to manufactured goods and vital technologies at home. Chantal Line Charpentier, head of trade, environment, and climate change at U.N. Trade and Development, called it the rush for critical minerals “an historic opportunity” for developing countries – if they can seize it.
As trade delegates met under a brown haze of pollution and traversed streets clogged with aging gas cars, the untapped potential and economic need was in sharp relief. Cameroon has cobalt, but has yet to mine it in large amounts. And the clean energy transition has yet to take hold, with few solar panels or electric vehicles in evidence.
A complex global trade network
Nearby Congo, in contrast, produces 70% of the global cobalt supply. But half the mines are Chinese-owned – and most of the cobalt it produces is sent as raw ore to be refined in China. The critical minerals trade is global, with production, refining, and manufacturing often taking place in different countries, with finished products then exported around the world. But it’s also fragile. Last year, Congo implemented a ban on the export of raw cobalt and has now implemented quotas designed to protect against oversupply in the market but also encourage investment into processing and manufacturing.
Establishing new mines or refining capacity is expensive and takes years. Investors want to know not just that there will be demand for the minerals they produce, but also seek assurances that they will be able to export what they mine at a profitable price. For the last 30 years, WTO rules helped provide that stability.
Trade ministers and other officials negotiating in Cameroon were officially talking about what is likely to be a multiyear process to modernize the WTO, with the tensions over critical mineral access referred to in official spaces with vague terms like “supply chain resilience” or “level playing field.” But the future of clean energy may depend on whether countries can be convinced they will be more secure and prosperous if they work together and adhere to global trade rules.
Nicole Itano is the director of policy and engagement at the Yale Center for Environmental Law and Policy. She has reported from more than 30 countries around the world.
