Standardized tests form the bedrock of school accountability systems and are a primary source of information for the public and policymakers alike. Over the past two decades, these tests also have come to define whether students are on track to being “college and career ready” at the end of high school, in line with state standards for what students should know and be able to do by the spring of each school year.
But many parents and educators have grown skeptical of standardized testing and the relevance of a student’s scores to their long-term success—especially tests given when children are still in elementary or middle school. Some question the typical practice of classifying students into different proficiency levels based on the scores they earned—such as below basic, basic, proficient, and advanced—to help parents and the public understand the results. What can a 14-year-old’s test scores and proficiency levels tell us about college readiness? We decided to find out and designed a study to assess the degree to which middle-school test performance and proficiency level predicts postsecondary success.
Middle-school test scores tell us quite a lot. Students with high scores on reading, math, and science tests in 8th grade are dramatically more likely to earn a bachelor’s degree within five years of finishing high school. We analyzed nine years of data for 260,000 students in Missouri, starting with their 8th-grade scores and following them through high school and the next five years to see which students graduated high school, attended college, and earned a degree. We looked at each subject test separately and in combination, and we looked at students as a whole and grouped by race and gender. Every analysis found the same trend: The higher a student’s middle-school test scores, the more likely they are to graduate high school, attend college, and earn a college degree.
The differences are especially stark among students in the highest- and lowest-score categories. Fewer than 1 percent of students who score below basic in 8th-grade reading go on to earn a four-year college degree compared with almost 23 percent of students who score proficient and 43 percent of students with advanced scores. Put another way, the strongest readers in 8th grade are about 62 times more likely to earn a bachelor’s degree than the students with the lowest reading scores.
We also investigate what we would expect to happen if every student had earned at least a proficient score on all three tests—a goal set by the federal Every Student Succeeds Act and mandated under its predecessor, No Child Left Behind. We simulate these test-score improvements and find substantial, positive impacts on postsecondary outcomes. Overall, the number of students earning four-year college degrees would jump by 55 percent. The number of Black students who earn four-year degrees would nearly triple, with increases of 189 percent for males and 182 percent for females. Among Hispanic students, four-year degree holders would almost double, with increases of 94 percent for males and 86 percent for females.
Standardized testing invites controversy; however, our analysis shows that test results provide relevant and predictive insights about academic achievement and the likelihood of a student’s postsecondary success. On one hand, states typically use test-score data along with other information, including attendance and grades, to identify students “at risk,” and this is important to prevent failure and support students. On the other hand, we focus on predicting students’ long-run success based on academic achievement before high school. Our simulation illustrates the potential impacts of ensuring all students finish middle school with grade-level skills and knowledge in reading, math, and science. A stronger start in high school gives students a far greater chance of earning a college degree.
