This revolving door of displacement is driven by other interrelated cycles
By Dr. Charles E. Owubah
Originally published in Global Voices.
Nyibol Mathiang Deng was six months pregnant when armed men stormed Muglad, the Sudanese village where she lived. Fearing the rest of her family was dead, she hid with her daughter. Soon, they set off on a challenging four-day journey by car, motorcycle, and foot, braving dangerous terrain and enduring blistering heat. When they finally arrived in Majok, South Sudan, they were relieved to be reunited with the rest of their family. But they were confronted by an uncertain future.
Nyibol is not alone in her plight. In fact, she is part of a much broader pattern — one that is having far-reaching ripples across the African continent.
Nyibol was six months pregnant when she fled to South Sudan.
Africa’s revolving door
Driven by conflict, climate change, and poverty, millions across central Africa are trapped in an escalating cycle of displacement. For example, Global Voices reports that drought in Somalia is pushing thousands of climate refugees into Kenya’s Dadaab Refugee Camp. Whether through forced displacement or voluntary migration, people are crossing borders in search of safety and opportunity, only to find conditions as dire — or even worse — than those they fled. The region is increasingly becoming a revolving door of migration and adversity.
To vastly simplify a complex situation, consider that over several years, more than 100,000 people are estimated to have left Chad for Sudan. Many struggled to find employment. Then, armed conflict in Sudan caused an escalating humanitarian crisis and what may be the worst hunger emergency in the world. While humanitarian organizations are trying to alleviate suffering, resources are spread too thin. So, perhaps it’s not a surprise that since the start of the current conflict in April 2023, more than 821,300 people from Sudan have sought refuge in South Sudan.
However, South Sudan has challenges of its own, including conflict, severe flooding and food insecurity which displaced millions. By the end of 2023, conditions in South Sudan left about 2 million people internally displaced and a further 2.3 million refugees in neighboring countries. Some who left South Sudan headed to the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).
Yet, in the DRC, clashes between military forces and insurgents are driving insecurity, hunger and a mental health crisis. As a result, tens of thousands of people have left the DRC for other places, including the Central African Republic. Unfortunately, similar shocks in the Central African Republic have displaced millions, with many lacking access to basic necessities like food, water and shelter. As a result, many have left the Central African Republic for Chad. And the cycle continues.
More Refugees Than Ever Before
Each year, more and more people are driven from their homes. At the end of 2023, over 117 million people were forcibly displaced. In 2024 so far, that number has likely exceeded 120 million. Children account for 40% of this number.
A complex web of displacement
To be clear, the revolving door is not a singular loop. It is a complex web of multi-directional movement. Not all migration flows are of comparable size or occurring at the same time. For example, the flow of migrants from Chad to Sudan has largely reversed as the conflict in Sudan has escalated into a humanitarian disaster. Today, Chad hosts an estimated one million refugees from Sudan — roughly equal to one in 17 people in the country.
Repatriation also plays a role. For example, during the war in South Sudan, many families moved to Sudan, which was comparatively stable with some economic opportunities, mostly in agriculture and manual labor. Then, when conflict broke out in Sudan, close to 600,000 South Sudanese returned to their home country. This included children who had never known South Sudan and often lacked the local family ties to protect and sustain them.
These returnees, together with Sudanese refugees, are straining already stretched basic services with the potential to lead to further conflict. The response from the global community has been woefully inadequate. The magnitude of this crisis is alarming: it impacts an estimated 45 million people and has grown by 14 percent.
Even as thousands leave any given country, thousands more may be pouring in. Even more are internally displaced, within their own borders but unable to return home. Some people move repeatedly, whether internally displaced within borders or crossing borders as migrants or refugees. The lines can be blurred.
Today, Chad hosts an estimated one million refugees from Sudan.
One cycle drives another
This revolving door of displacement is driven by other interrelated cycles. The climate crisis is a hunger crisis. In the Horn of Africa alone, over 36 million people have been affected by droughts which have decreased crop yields and caused food shortages. As climate change worsens, so does conflict — which only worsens this situation. As noted in the UN Security Council Resolution 2417, too often, hunger is used as a weapon of war. Despite the UN Resolution, we are seeing a vicious cycle where conflict drives hunger, and hunger drives conflict.
This endless cycle points to deeper systemic failures that leave the world’s most marginalized people even more vulnerable.
Our Work with Refugees
Action Against Hunger works closely with refugees to help them rebuild their lives. Some of our staff members are refugees themselves. Every day, we work to prevent and treat malnutrition, provide mental health services, improve access to water and sanitation, and support displaced people, wherever they end up. As conflicts in Gaza, Sudan, and Ukraine rage on, our teams face the displacement crisis head-on.
Opening the door to opportunity
Research consistently shows that newcomers, including immigrants and refugees, can benefit their host communities, including potential economic gains in low- and middle-income countries. However, if immigration isn’t well managed, it can strain local resources in the short term. Fortunately, there are effective models to address these challenges, and Uganda stands out as a potential example for the world.
Uganda hosts approximately 1.7 million refugees from more than 10 countries. Their comprehensive framework, The Uganda Country Refugee Response Plan (UCRRP), focuses on strengthening access to public services, enhancing self-reliance and promoting co-existence with the host community. This framework also calls for increased support from development actors to bolster government systems. Nonprofit organizations like Action Against Hunger also play an important role. Action Against Hunger has helped countless families seeking refuge in Uganda, for example, to establish roots in their new communities. This can involve providing agricultural training for families to cultivate their own food, job training and internships for young people, and financial literacy workshops, among other programs. Yet, resources are limited.
The global community urgently needs to increase funding for humanitarian relief and also invest in proven programs, such as climate-smart agriculture, that can prevent displacement. Yet, in 2023, countries dealing with crisis levels of hunger — or worse — only received 35 percent of their requested funding for hunger-related programs. In other words, the hunger funding gap hovers around 65 percent. This situation should concern anyone who wants to live in a peaceful and equitable world.
Fortunately, Nyibol’s journey has led her to a place where she can start over. She and her family have relocated to Kuajok, South Sudan, with the help of aid organizations, and she hopes to get back to farming there as soon as the rains return. Despite the challenges she is having in reconstructing her life, Nyibol remains determined and courageous. Yet, without systemic change and sufficient funding, millions of people like Nyibol will remain trapped in a revolving door of displacement.
