The first thing drivers probably check when they go to the gas station is the cost of gasoline — especially with prices surging. What they might not pay as much attention to is diesel. Perhaps they should. The price of that essential fuel has climbed even more quickly, and new data shows that it’s blowing nearly as big a hole in the American economy.
When bombing began in the Middle East, Iran quickly closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil passes. Prices immediately shot up, and, with the United States and Iran failing to negotiate a peace settlement over the weekend, the price of oil is once again rising.
As of April 13, the war has saddled consumers with a staggering $19 billion in added fuel costs, according to researchers at Brown University who recently launched an online tool that tracks the impact of rising oil prices. Although the national conversation has focused on gasoline, diesel accounted for $9.4 billion, or almost half, of that increase. At about $71 per U.S. household, that’s having a profound impact on everyone, even those who do not buy diesel.
“You’re probably feeling it in ways you don’t realize,” said Jeff Colgan, a political scientist at Brown who, along with his students, built the dashboard, which updates continuously. While some people purchase diesel for their passenger vehicles, the fuel is essential to commercial operations such as trucking, rail, agriculture and construction. Virtually every good in the country passes through the diesel supply chain at some point, and higher costs are eventually passed to consumers.
”Diesel is the fuel that powers the economy much more than gasoline does,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy, an app that lets consumers track fuel prices. He explained that because each barrel of oil produces less diesel than gasoline, the impact has been disproportionately higher. According to the Brown University tracker, diesel prices have climbed 54 percent since the war began Feb. 28, compared to the 38 percent jump for gasoline.
Gas customers have been driving less as a result, but the industries that rely on diesel rarely have that option. “Gasoline demand is more elastic, meaning as prices go up, Americans can simply reduce consumption to some degree,” said De Haan. Diesel demand, on the other hand, doesn’t move as much.
The timing of the war with Iran is another factor contributing to the relative spike of diesel. The United States and Israel began bombing Iran on the heels of a long, cold winter in New England, where most of the country’s heating oil is consumed. Because heating oil and diesel have nearly identical molecular structures and energy content, there was already upward seasonal pressure on prices at the pump, which the war exacerbated. “Coming out of winter, heating oil consumption is elevated,” said De Haan. “That usually impacts diesel as well.”
While rising fuel prices has been bad news for the world’s consumers and economies, there have been some winners. “The really big beneficiaries are the oil producers around the world that haven’t been locked in behind the Strait of Hormuz,” Colgan said. “Russia is by far the biggest one of them, and the United States.”
Despite a two-week ceasefire intended to open the Strait, only a handful of ships have transited the embattled waterway. When peace talks collapsed, President Donald Trump announced a blockade on Iranian ports. That campaign started Monday morning, once again driving oil prices higher. The commonly cited benchmark, Brent crude, reflects what traders expect a barrel will be worth in a month or two.. But the spot price — or what it actually costs to buy a barrel now — has been trending higher than that, suggesting the crisis could be deeper than many realize.
“Physical prices and physical supplies would reflect a tighter market than I think the forward curve reflects,” said Mike Wirth, the chief executive of Chevron, at a conference last month.
Even when the Strait opens and ships start moving again, it could take months to repair damaged oil infrastructure and the market to recalibrate. It’s also unclear what new factors might be introduced by then. For example, Iran reportedly wants to charge million-dollar tanker fees that could be passed down to customers. But with winter ending and summer — when gasoline prices are highest — coming, De Haan expects the gap in price between the two fuels to shrink.
“From here on out,” he said, “you may see a little bit less of an increase in diesel as markets move up.”
