The world just had its second-warmest March on record » Yale Climate Connections

March 2026 was tied with 2024 as the world’s second-warmest March in analyses of global weather data going back to 1850, NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, or NCEI, reported April 9. Only March 2025 was warmer. NASA rated March 2026 as the fourth-warmest March; the European Copernicus Climate Change Service comes out with its rating on April 10. The global-average temperature for January-March 2026 was the fourth-highest on record, NOAA said.

According to NCEI’s statistical analysis, it is almost certain that 2026 will rank among the 10 warmest years on record, and very likely that it will place in the top five.

Global land areas had their third-warmest March on record in 2026, while global oceans had their second-warmest March, falling just 0.06 degree Celsius (0.11°F) shy of the record set in 2024, NOAA said. Europe had its third-warmest March; Antarctica, its fourth-warmest; South America and Africa, their sixth-warmest; and Asia, its eighth-warmest. Although North America, Oceania, and the Arctic all experienced above-average March temperatures, none ranked among the top 10.

Snow cover in March was well below average over the Western U.S. and much of Asia and Europe. Overall, Northern Hemisphere snow cover during March 2026 was the sixth-lowest since records began in 1967.

Record warmth and dryness in the U.S.

As detailed in Bob Henson’s post yesterday, last month was the warmest March in records for the contiguous United States, and it has also been the hottest weather on record for all intervals (two-month, three-month, etc.) going all the way back to the 12-month period from April 2025 through March 2026. The same holds true for the past 18-, 24-, 36-, and 48-month periods.

March 2026 was also the sixth-driest March in contiguous U.S. history, and the nationally averaged precipitation total for 2026 to date is an ominous one: a mere 4.79 inches. That’s the lowest value on record for any January-to-March interval, including such notoriously dry periods as the Dust Bowl of the 1930s. The previous record low was 5.27 inches, set in January-March 1910.

La Niña ends, and an El Niño watch continues

La Niña conditions ended in March, and an El Niño watch continues in the Eastern Pacific, NOAA reported in its April 9 monthly discussion of the state of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. ENSO-neutral conditions are present, and an El Niño is likely to emerge in May-July 2026 (61% chance), persisting through at least the end of 2026. According to the Columbia University International Research Institute for Climate and Society forecast issued March 19, the August-September-October peak of hurricane season has a 77% chance of El Niño, a 21% chance of ENSO-neutral, and a 2% chance of La Niña. NOAA is giving a 25% chance of very strong El Niño conditions developing. El Niño conditions tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity through an increase in wind shear.

Arctic sea ice: lowest seasonal maximum and lowest March extent on record

Arctic sea ice reached its maximum extent for the year on March 15, statistically tying with 2025 for the lowest maximum in the 48-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Arctic sea ice extent during March 2026 was virtually tied with March 2025 as the lowest in the 48-year satellite record. The Arctic had warmer-than-average conditions in March, though not ranking within its top 10.

Antarctic sea ice extent in March 2026 was below average but didn’t rank as a top-10 lowest extent. The Antarctic had its fourth-warmest March since 1850. The 12-month running average temperature in Antarctica has been the highest on record (see Bluesky post below from Brian Brettschneider; note that Antarctic data before 1979 [the beginning of the satellite era] is considered suspect).