After almost a two-week break, the Atlantic is once again showing signs of life. This week, we’re monitoring Invest 95L in the central Atlantic southeast of Bermuda and another tropical wave emerging from Africa on Monday. Both disturbances were given seven-day odds of development of 50% by the National Hurricane Center in its 8 a.m. EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook.
The outlook for 95L
Invest 95L is a few hundred miles southeast of Bermuda in the subtropical Atlantic. Although the National Hurricane Center has highlighted a 50% chance of development during the next seven days, 95L is mainly moving north and is not expected to impact land.
The broad area of low pressure associated with 95L, which remains very disorganized, will continue to be pulled northward by a front that has exited the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada. This front will allow 95L to move away from the United States, regardless of whether it develops. The system will also enter cooler waters, which will inhibit further development. Even if 95L does develop into a tropical depression (or even a named storm) this week, this will likely be a system very much like Cristobal: short-lived, high-latitude, and steering clear of land areas.
A Cabo Verde wave to watch this week
Farther east, near Africa, we continue to monitor the tropical waves that emerge from the African continent, as is typical during this time of year. The National Hurricane Center has highlighted a large swath across the tropical Atlantic with a 50% chance of tropical development during the next seven days. The tropical wave is expected to exit Africa between late Monday and Tuesday afternoon. It will pass south of the Cabo Verde Islands as a wide low-pressure system. As the system continues to try to become better organized, we expect development chances to increase during the second half of the week.
This system is thousands of miles from the Caribbean and the United States, so we have plenty of time to monitor it as it potentially becomes better organized while moving mainly westward across the tropical Atlantic. Models have varied on whether the system develops.
Possible tracks for the Cabo Verde wave
Without a well-defined center of circulation, it is tough to pinpoint a possible track, especially when this wave had not even completely exited Africa as of Monday.
Parts of the Caribbean continue to deal with a swath of stronger wind shear extending from the central Caribbean through Nicaragua and Honduras with at least 25 to 30 knots. The wind shear forecast continues to show this swath remaining in place. Slightly ahead of it and closer to the tropical Atlantic, there are small pockets of wind shear that oscillate between 20 and 30 knots.
However, these forecasts only extend through the middle of the week, and it appears that wind shear could decrease over the tropical Atlantic just northeast of the Lesser Antilles during the latter part of the week. Sea-surface temperatures are a bit cooler than average for this time of year across much of the tropical Atlantic, but since we are near the late-summer climatological peak of oceanic warmth, the sea-surface temperatures are still more than sufficient to support development, running between 28 and 29 degrees Celsius (82 and 84 degrees Fahrenheit) just east of the Lesser Antilles.
The Bermuda High is centered west of the Azores over the northern subtropical Atlantic. Although it is gradually trying to strengthen and expand westward, it is likely to remain centered near the Azores, giving this tropical system little opportunity to continue toward the Bahamas or the United States. Nonetheless, we need to monitor this disturbance closely, because if the high-pressure system expands farther west, we could be talking about a system that tracks closer to the U.S. East Coast, and Bermuda could also feel the eventual impacts. It’s too soon to be too specific, but as of the 6Z Monday, August 24, runs of the GFS and European models:
- The American GFS model has the system becoming a hurricane by the end of the week while located between the Lesser Antilles and Africa. However, this model also has the system recurving to the north and traveling along the periphery of the Bermuda High, likely remaining over the open Atlantic and well east of Bermuda.
- The European model keeps the system much weaker through the end of the week, possibly becoming a tropical storm by Friday. This model also shows the storm recurving to the northwest and north by early next week, likely keeping it away from the United States.
The next two names on the list are Dolly and Edouard.
The Pacific continues to be active
The eastern and central Pacific continue to produce plenty of tropical activity. Tropical Storm Moke passed several hundred miles south of Hawaii’s Big Island as a low-end storm with 40 mph (65 km/h) winds on Sunday before weakening to a tropical depression late Sunday. At 8 a.m. EDT Monday, Tropical Depression Moke was moving west at about 13 mph (20 km/h) with top sustained winds of 35 mph (55 km/h). Although this system does not pose a direct threat to Hawaii, it could produce gusty rainbands that bring another three to six inches of rain across eastern Maui and the Big Island. This heavy rainfall could fall over some of the same areas that were recently affected by Hurricane Lala. Flash flooding is likely, and landslides are also a threat, along with some power outages, especially across the higher terrain. Across the rest of the island chain, some moisture could be pulled northward, bringing one to two inches of rain. Moke is expected to dissipate late today or on Tuesday.
As of early Monday morning, rainfall from Moke was less than expected across the Big Island, with highest totals under two to three inches and no reports of damaging flooding. A flood watch remains in effect through Monday afternoon local time for lingering rains over still-saturated grounds from Lala.
With the eastern Pacific hurricane season only about half over, Hawaii can expect to see more tropical storm activity this year. Ensemble forecasts from the GFS and European models show the potential for another named storm to affect Hawaii in seven to 14 days.
Elsewhere in the Central Pacific, resilient Tropical Storm Lala is moving slowly northwest into cooler waters, far from any land areas. The system is likely to remain a tropical storm through much of this week before weakening to a remnant low by Friday. Lala poses no threat to any land areas.
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Iselle is churning the waters far from land. Iselle is expected to intensify to a Category 1 hurricane on Tuesday, then gradually weaken the rest of the week as higher wind shear, dry air, and cooler waters affect it. Iselle is expected to dissipate by the weekend. If it becomes a hurricane, it will be the third hurricane of the Eastern Pacific season.
NHC is monitoring three other areas in the eastern Pacific for chances of development. First, Invest 91E is a small, disorganized area of low pressure south-southwest of the Baja California Peninsula. The system is likely to become absorbed by Tropical Storm Iselle, and it has a very short window to develop before that happens at the beginning of the week.
The NHC is also giving seven-day development odds of 20-30% for two areas off the coast of Mexico. No organized system exists in either area yet, but a low-pressure system is expected to develop just south of Iselle over the next seven days. We could be watching this area again by the weekend for the possible formation of the next tropical storm. If a system develops, it will likely continue moving west-northwestward, parallel to the coast of Mexico.
Moke is the 3rd named storm to affect Hawaii this year
Moke is the second named storm to affect Hawaii in the past week, along with Hurricane Lala. Hawaii has been affected by back-to-back named storms within a week just one other time since records began in 1949, according to Jon Erdman of weather.com. Erdman wrote, “In 2016, Hurricane Madeline weakened to a tropical storm, then brushed south of the Big Island from August 31 to September 1. Just two days later, Hurricane Lester passed north of the islands from September 3-4. But Madeline only triggered minor flooding on the Big Island with no significant property damage, and Lester’s northward fly-by only triggered large swells along beaches.”
Final Hawaii precipitation maps from Hurricane Lala. I pulled gauge observations and blended that with model data to get the spatial pattern. My method estimates a max of 45 inches on the southeastern flank of Mauna Loa, but there were no gauges in that area to verify.
— Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik (@joeboomzag.bsky.social) 2026-08-21T00:10:31.838Z
Category 1 Hurricane Lala passed about 30 miles (48 km) southwest of the southern tip of the Big Island on August 15, 2026. The storm’s northeastern eyewall briefly pushed ashore, bringing tropical storm-force winds to southern portions of the island. However, Lala’s heavy rains were by far the most serious threat, bringing destructive flash flooding and landslides. According to insurance broker Aon, Lala killed one person in Hawaii and did hundreds of millions in damage. The highest total rainfall was 43.54 inches at Laupahoehoe, a coastal town about 25 mi (40 km) northwest of Hilo. According to Michael Lowry, Lala will likely go down as one of the top 10 wettest tropical cyclones on record for the U.S. and perhaps the third-wettest to affect Hawaii, only behind Lane in 2018 and Hiki in 1950, which brought rainfall totals of 58 inches and 52 inches, respectively.
Hawaii was also affected this year by Hurricane Fausto, the first hurricane of the 2026 eastern North Pacific season, which reached Category 2 strength in mid-July as it tracked westward into the central Pacific toward Hawaii. High wind shear, dry air, and cooler water temperatures weakened the hurricane, and on July 29, Fausto degenerated to a remnant low with 35 mph winds as it passed 285 miles (460 km) north of Hilo on the Island of Hawaii. According to insurance broker Aon, Fausto caused negligible damage in Hawaii.
Tropical cyclones for the year to date: Pacific-centric, just as expected
With one of the most powerful El Niño events of recent decades – perhaps soon to be the strongest – already pushing sea surface temperatures toward record territory in the eastern tropical Pacific, it’s no surprise that this year’s hurricane and typhoon activity has been heavily tilted toward the North Pacific and away from the North Atlantic, in line with seasonal outlooks issued months ago.
For the year to date through August 23, global statistics maintained by Colorado State University show the marked regional asymmetry in this year’s accumulated cyclone energy compared to the climatological averages (1991–2020):
Northwest Pacific: +75% (197.9, average to date 113.0)
Central and Northeast Pacific: +13% (77.6, average to date 68.4)
North Atlantic: –86% (3.1, average to date 22.3)
Not only has the Atlantic failed to spin up a single hurricane, but only one tropical storm (Bertha, 60 mph) has generated sustained winds stronger than 45 mph. And as noted by The Weather Company, the Atlantic’s ACE total to date is the lowest for any season since 1988.
On average, the Atlantic’s first hurricane of the year develops on August 11 and the second one on August 26. Although there’s a modest chance this week could deliver one or even two named storms in the Atlantic, the odds of anything hurricane-strength taking shape before the end of August appear slim. The latest appearance of the first hurricane in any Atlantic season of the satellite-based observing era is September 11, set by Hurricane Gustav (2022) and tied by Hurricane Humberto (2013).
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