Two more landfalls expected this weekend, both on Mexico’s Pacific coast » Yale Climate Connections

by Bob Henson and Jeff Masters, Yale Climate Connections
October 10, 2026

Even after Hurricane Isaias plowed into the western Florida Panhandle on Friday night, causing widespread but non-catastrophic damage, the work of the NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center was far from over. In an unprecedented onslaught, NHC found itself on Friday issuing advisories not only for Isaias but also for the U.S. Pacific coast and two stretches of Mexico’s Pacific coast, ahead of the projected Saturday-night landfalls of Tropical Storm Rachel and Hurricane Simon. Both Rachel and Simon could produce significant, far-flung impacts, but in quite different ways.

Simon is by far the stronger of the two. After forming on Wednesday well offshore from Manzanillo, Mexico, Simon drifted westward as a tropical storm through Thursday night, then swung north while rapidly strengthening into a Category 4 hurricane on Friday and Friday night. As of 5 p.m. EDT Saturday, Simon was centered about 100 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, heading north at 5 mph (7 km/h) with top sustained winds holding at 150 mph (240 km/h).

The first hurricane-hunter flight into Simon at midday Saturday confirmed the storm’s Cat 4 power, finding an estimated central pressure of 933 mb and peak flight-level winds of 153 mph (246 km/h). The storm’s tiny eye on Friday night allowed for ferociously quick strengthening, followed by an apparent eyewall replacement cycle that gave Simon a larger eyewall and a somewhat broader wind field. The hurricane hunters found concentric eyewalls roughly 14 and 41 miles (23 and 66 km) in diameter.

Simon’s general north to north-northwest motion was expected to continue, with weak but steady steering currents holding in place until the hurricane nears the coast of northern Jalico state on Sunday. That’s where the track and intensity forecast become unusually tricky, because Simon will be approaching the coast at a near-parallel angle, with the storm’s stronger right-hand (east) side closer to the coast. This means that only a slight leftward or rightward deviation in the track can produce dramatically different impacts along and near the coast. There was little help from Saturday’s forecast models in pinpointing those impacts, because the model suites included everything from tracks that keep Simon just offshore through Monday to coast-scraping solutions to tracks that move Simon bodily inland on Sunday well south of Puerto Vallarta.

Since hurricanes interact with the rugged coastal terrain of this area, they often angle further east than models expect, as NHC noted, so it’s safest to assume that Simon will move onto the coastline at some point this weekend. The rugged terrain, and drying from downslope winds flowing offshore into Simon, may induce some weakening prior to landfall, but Simon will likely be a formidable storm regardless.

As shown in Fig. 1 above, the official forecast track as of 5 p.m. EDT Saturday brings the center of Simon onto the southern Jalisco coast as a major hurricane early Sunday afternoon, and in the vicinity of Puerto Vallarta as a weakening minimal hurricane on Sunday night, likely slowing and dissipating by Tuesday. Note that the “cone” in this graphic is based on average forecast error over the past five years, and is designed to include about two-thirds of possible tracks. Simon could remain much stronger for longer if it stays just offshore, possibly bringing significant wind impacts to a longer stretch of coastline. Or it could weaken more quickly than expected if it angles further inland after landfall.

Regardless of these track possibilities, Simon’s heaviest rains will likely be well south of Puerto Vallarta, with totals near the coast as high as 12-16 inches in parts of Jalisco, Colima, and Michoacán states. The torrential rains could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudlides. Huge surf and swells and strong rip currents are also expected, while the biggest wind impacts will hinge more closely on wherever the eastern and northern eyewall end up moving onshore.

Rachel on track to bring much-needed rainfall but dangerous flash flooding to the U.S. Southwest

A few hundred miles north of Simon’s encounter with the Mexican coastline, sprawling Tropical Storm Rachel will sweep onshore early Sunday, its center passing just south of the U.S.–Mexico border. As of 5 p.m. EDT Saturday, resilient Rachel’s top sustained winds were at 65 mph, a bit stronger than on Friday, with some help from the upper-level trough pushing the storm along. Tropical-storm-force winds extended out up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center, making Rachel a even broader gale-producer than Simon. However, Rachel was producing only limited rainfall, as its banding features were largely devoid of intense showers and thunderstorms (see infrared satellite image at top).

Given Rachel’s brisk northeast motion (about 22 mph or 35 km/h on Saturday afternoon) and the size of its wind field, the storm could be packing sustained winds in the 40-50 mph range on Sunday across far northwest Mexico and as far inland as southeast California and southwest Arizona. By late Sunday, Post-Tropical Storm Rachel (or its remnant circulation) will be racing northward through Utah. Even as the surface winds spin down, upper-level winds will be slower to do so, and powerful gusts could occurs across the higher terrain of the Southwest into Sunday afternoon and evening.

As Rachel moves onshore, the same frictional effects and higher terrain that will lead to its rapid demise as a tropical storm will help enhance rainfall. A corridor of 1-to-3-inch rains near Rachel’s path is expected on Sunday from the deserts of far southern California across the Las Vegas area and into southern Utah. Flash flooding could occur, especially where Rachel’s rains fall in narrow canyons and atop burn scars. The NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center has placed a moderate-risk area for excessive rain leading to flash flooding (level 3 of 4) around Rachel’s projected path from Sunday into early Monday.

Record water levels and Rachel’s waves are likely to cause significant coastal damage

Water levels along the coast of Southern California been running about 1.5 feet above normal in recent days because of a record-strength El Niño event. These high water levels, in combination with Rachel’s (relatively small) storm surge and large battering waves, are likely to cause significant coastal damage during the Sunday morning high tide. The National Weather Service (NWS) has posted a Coastal Flood Warning for Sunday for San Diego and Orange County, including the cities of San Diego and Los Angeles. The NWS warned:

THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT THE EXPECTED COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS ON SUNDAY MORNING FOR VULNERABLE SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF L.A. COUNTY COULD BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON, INCLUDING THOSE SEEN WITH HURRICANE MARIE.

Rachel’s influence may bring a top-10 high water level during Sunday morning’s high tide in Los Angeles, which has already seen two top-10 marks this year, thanks to El Niño and sea level rise. Here are the top water levels for Los Angeles since records began in 1923 (in feet above Mean Higher High Water, MHHW):

1) 2.43′, Jan. 10, 200
2) 2.33′, Jan. 27, 1983
3) 2.32′, Jul. 14, 2026
4) 2.26′, Jul. 15, 2026
5) 2.26′, Nov. 25, 2015
6) 2.24′, Aug. 9, 1983
7) 2.24′, Aug. 8, 1983
8) 2.22′, Nov. 26, 2015
9) 2.22′, Dec. 13, 2012
10) 2.21′: Forecast for Oct. 11, 2026

NOAA is currently predicting a water level of 2.21 feet during the Sunday morning high tide, which is being boosted by the new moon. This would rank as Los Angeles’ 10th-highest water level on record.

Rachel’s influence may also bring a top-10 high water level during Sunday morning’s high tide in San Diego, which has already seen two top-10 marks this year, including their highest water level on record, from El Niño and sea level rise. Here are the top water levels for San Diego since records began in 1906 (in feet above Mean Higher High Water, MHHW):

1)   2.51’, Jul. 14, 2026
2)   2.51’ Nov. 25, 2015
3)  2.50’, Aug. 2, 2023
4) 2.48′: Prediction for Oct. 11, 2026
5)  2.44’, Dec. 13, 2012
6)  2.44’, Aug. 1, 2023
7)  2.43’, Jul. 15, 2026
8)  2.41’, Jan. 27, 1983
9)   2.40’, Aug. 8, 1983
10)  2.40’, Aug. 9, 1983

NOAA is currently predicting a water level of 2.48 feet during the Sunday morning high tide, which is expected to be one of the month’s highest tides because of the phase of the moon (a new moon). This would rank as San Diego’s fourth-highest water level on record.

You can follow the coastal flooding at NOAA tide gauges during Rachel at the Tropical Storm Rachel Dashboard.

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