President Biden has set out a 2035 climate target to cut U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 61–66 percent below 2005 levels by 2035. With this announcement of a 2035 “nationally determined contribution” (NDC) under the Paris Agreement, the Biden administration is putting out a clear marker of what U.S. climate action needs to deliver in the next 10 years. This new NDC is ambitious but achievable. It won’t be easy, and it will require substantial leadership outside of Washington, D.C., but delivering this ambition is the necessary call to action to make the lives of Americans better and help the world tackle the growing dangers of the climate crisis.
“As the world’s largest producer of oil, the largest producer and exporter of fossil gas, and the largest historical climate polluter, the United States has an outsized responsibility to press forward in the climate fight no matter the political headwinds. And it is in the country’s economic self-interest to ensure America is not left behind as the world transitions to clean energy.”
Manish Bapna, NRDC president & CEO
Cutting GHG emissions will benefit Americans
Achieving a 61–66 percent reduction in U.S. climate emissions by 2035 (compared to 2005 levels) can create jobs, spur economic growth, and help put the United States on a path toward staving off the worst impacts of climate change.
Put millions of Americans to work every year. More than 3.5 million Americans across every state are already at work in the clean energy economy (see figure). These jobs are in rural areas, cities, and everywhere in between. They are welders, construction workers, engineers, electricians, innovators, and everyone in between. And these jobs are in hot demand: Wind technician and solar installer are the two fastest-growing jobs in the United States. While jobs across the U.S. economy are projected to grow by only 4 percent between 2023 and 2033, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) expects wind technician jobs to grow by 60 percent and solar installer jobs to grow by 48 percent.
Growing investment opportunities and jobs in every corner of America. Since the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in August 2022, around $490 billion has been invested in clean energy—from new solar panel manufacturing facilities to new wind farms to new electric vehicles—in the United States, according to the Clean Investment Monitor (see figure). Solar manufacturing capacity in the country has nearly quintupled at the same time, with the United States now having nearly enough manufacturing capacity to meet domestic demand. And this reshoring of industry is bringing along new job opportunities: New clean energy manufacturing facilities announced since the IRA will directly support more than 115,000 clean energy jobs across 42 states—predominantly in red states.
The 2035 target is aggressive but achievable
Recent climate action lays a foundation. With the recent policy and market progress, groups estimate that the United States will be on trajectory to cut emissions in 2035 by up to 56 percent below 2005 levels just under “business-as-usual.” This means that, even without new policy, the United States would be well on its way to the 2035 target (the country is currently about 17 percent below 2005 levels as of 2023) just given existing policies at the state and federal levels and market trends.
Various studies (including some not yet public) show that U.S. emissions can be cut even further with aggressive action at the federal, state, city, and company level. These studies found that emissions in 2035 could be cut by 65–70 percent if the United States is able to successfully leverage known technologies and policy pathways. This is evident in the analysis from NRDC, University of Maryland Center for Global Sustainability (UMD-CGS), Energy Innovation, America Is All In conducted by UMD-CGS, and the Union of Concerned Scientists. Each analysis came at this issue from a different angle, but they concluded that such a target is ambitious but achievable within the timeframe set given the market, policy, and economic trends.
Despite headwinds it is still within reach. Achieving the target of 61–66 percent will be a challenge given the climate action headwinds that the United States will face at the federal level in the next four years. But despite this, it is still possible (but certainly not easy) to meet this level of ambition. An updated analysis from the University of Maryland Center for Global Development points to a pathway to get within this range. It found that in 2035, with strong leadership by non-federal actors but without additional federal action until 2029, the United States could achieve 54–62 percent GHG emissions reductions relative to 2005 levels by 2035 across a range of federal climate ambitions” (see figure).
The bottom of the range reflects a larger rollback of policy at the federal level over the next four years, with the more ambitious range reflecting the level that can be achieved with continuation of existing federal laws and regulations and enhanced leadership from states, cities, companies, investors, and others. Defending and stopping roll backs of the most important U.S. climate policies, like the IRA, will be key to unlocking the economic and environmental benefits of clean energy. And there is support from industry, as well as from politicians on both sides of the aisle, to keep some of these key federal policies.
Additional state, city, and company action is needed
Given the U.S. federal headwinds over the next four years, this target puts out a clear call to action.
“While the incoming administration has vowed to turn its back on the world—again—the majority of Americans want climate action and the clean energy boom is unstoppable. The 2035 climate target can serve as a North Star for states, cities, and corporations that are committed to climate action and ready to accelerate progress outside of Washington, D.C. This is a signal for governors, mayors, and CEOs who are eager to embrace this opportunity to lead by defending and stepping up climate progress, and reaping the economic and social benefits that come with it. In doing so, they can uphold the spirit of the Paris Agreement and keep America’s promise to the world.”
Manish Bapna, NRDC president & CEO
Out of the efforts to stall U.S. climate progress following the 2016 election, governors, mayors, companies, and others formed coalitions such as America Is All In (a coalition of over 5,000 leaders from states, cities, companies, and others), U.S. Climate Alliance (a coalition of 24 governors), and Climate Mayors (a network of nearly 350 mayors). These coalitions rallied around continued action in their jurisdictions and ensuring that the world heard that, despite what was happening in the White House, America would continue to take steps to deliver on its commitments under the Paris Agreement.
These coalitions are poised to build on that action. The UMD CGS analysis points out how leadership from states can play an important role in driving climate progress over the next few years. They found that the 24 states in the U.S. Climate Alliance—that represent around 55 percent of the U.S. population and 60 percent of the country’s economy—could cut their own emissions by 60 to 66 percent, driving emissions nationwide to as low as 62 percent below 2005 levels by 2035, even without additional federal action.
The U.S. Climate Alliance “pledged to work to collectively reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by at least 61–66 percent below 2005 levels by 2035.” The critical role of state level action is especially evident in the electricity sector where states and territories have mandates for renewables to account for an increasing share of their electricity consumption (Renewable Portfolio Standards) or “100 clean electricity targets” (see figure). But in parallel to making robust progress in the electricity sector, it will also be essential for leaders at the subnational level to be creative about how to drive progress in other sectors that have historically been less of a focus for decarbonization efforts (e.g., heavy industry, buildings, oil and gas). And these leaders will need to get creative in implementing new policies and strategies to reach the deeper emissions cuts across the economy.
Companies will also need to step up. As a part of America Is All In, nearly 4,000 companies have committed to reaching net zero by 2050, helping cut U.S. emission in half by 2030 and supporting the Paris Agreement. These range from small businesses to multinational companies to power companies to retail suppliers to companies in red states to every type of company in between. One way these companies will need to keep delivering is by selling or purchasing electricity from renewable electricity generators—like wind and solar facilities. Nearly 50 investor-owned electric utilities (with over 150 subsidiaries) spread throughout the United States have commitments to slash their emissions (see figure).
Major companies, like Microsoft and Walmart, are also showing continued commitment to renewable electricity as evidenced by the continued increase in Corporate Power Purchase Agreements, i.e., companies committing to purchase specific amounts of renewable electricity from a renewable electricity generator (see figure).
Action at this scale can help meet global climate targets
This U.S. NDC, if delivered, would be in the range of targets that a major emitting country like the United States should deliver. NRDC assessed the various 2035 NDC benchmarks for key economies, including the United States. The 61–66 percent range would be consistent with a straight-line pathway to meet the U.S. 2050 net zero target—the minimum benchmark that a number of countries announced at COP29 (see figure).
A call to action: mobilizing the necessary action despite headwinds
The U.S. commitment to strive to reduce GHG emissions 61–66 percent below 2005 levels by 2035 is a call to action for what states, cities, companies, investors, and citizens across the country will need to deliver in the coming years. It won’t be easy, as national and global climate action will face massive headwinds. But it is in America’s interest to meet this ambitious but achievable target—as evidenced by the job creation and economic opportunities we are already seeing from recent U.S. climate policy successes. People living in the United States and around the world are already experiencing the costly and deadly impacts of climate change, and as the world’s largest economy and major emitter, the United States needs to take ambitious action.
All of us need to roll up our sleeves because we have no choice—it needs to be the North Star that steers us through the choppy seas ahead.
