Discussions on the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), which aims to enhance adaptive capacity, strengthen resilience, and reduce vulnerability, proved challenging at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’s (UNFCCC) 64th Subsidiary Bodies (SB64) in Bonn Germany. On the final day of SB64, negotiations stalled over two key issues:
- the composition of the technical taskforce that would further develop the metadata and methodologies to operationalize the Belém Adaptation Indicators—a set of 59 indicators that Parties adopted at COP30 to measure progress towards achieving the seven thematic targets and four iterative adaptation cycles under the UAE framework for Global Climate Resilience
- whether and how to reference tripling adaptation finance by 2035—a commitment agreed at COP30.
Ultimately, Parties were unable to reach consensus, meaning these items will be discussed again at COP31 this November. As Parties could not agree to carry forward draft text from SB64 as a basis for discussions at COP31, negotiations will start from square one.
The lack of progress on the GGA in Bonn and the delay in reaching agreement could have significant implications on the ability to track and improve how Parties are responding to climate impacts.
The Belém Adaptation Indicators are meant to serve as an input to the second global stocktake (GST2), a key touchpoint in the Paris Agreement’s five-year ambition cycle, whereby Parties successively create more ambitious national plans and review collective progress. If delays in operationalizing the Belém Adaptation Indicators persist at COP31, including launching the SBs Technical Taskforce, there may not be time for the indicators to inform GST2, impeding a holistic picture of global adaptation progress until the next global stocktake in 2033.
This leaves a critical question unanswered: is the world on track to achieve the 2030 targets for global adaptation progress established under the GGA Framework?
Issues at SB64 related to the GGA
Composition of the SBs Technical Taskforce: While the GGA discussions began to break down in the final days of SB64 over divergent views on how to reference adaptation finance, what ultimately made the discussions fall apart was the composition of the SBs Technical Taskforce, which is responsible for improving the Belém Adaptation Indicators’ metadata and methodologies. Several options emerged for how to structure the SBs Technical Taskforce:
- Party-led and negotiator-driven process
- technical expert group drawn from the previous UAE-Belém Work Programme
- experts from relevant UN agencies and international organizations
- a two-tier structure, including a Party oversight body alongside a technical expert group.
Parties will need to give due consideration on what compromises can be made to agree to the composition and modalities of the SBs Technical Taskforce at COP31.
References to tripling adaptation finance by 2035: Adaptation finance also proved contentious at SB64.
- Many developing countries sought stronger recognition of the need to track adaptation finance toward the commitment to triple adaptation finance by 2035- a decision from COP30.
- Developed countries argue that there are other agreed avenues to track climate finance and that duplication should be avoided.
Questions remain about how progress will be measured towards the tripling of adaptation finance by 2035, particularly given the continuing lack of clarity around the baseline year for the target. Progress and greater understanding of adaptation finance within the GGA negotiations will be crucial as developing country Parties make clear the need for finance to implement the GGA Framework. For more information on adaptation finance from COP30 see C2ES’ publication here.
Looking Ahead to COP31
The discussions at SB64 highlighted a broader challenge facing the GGA process: balancing political expectations around adaptation finance and implementation with the technical work needed to operationalize the Belém Adaptation Indicators.What was once viewed as a relatively narrow adaptation agenda for COP31 now has several issues to address amid an already packed agenda.
