China, the EU and India are among big polluters set to miss this month’s deadline for new targets as concerns grow of a “softening” in climate ambition
The head of the UN climate change body has urged countries to submit new “first-rate” climate targets by September, after only a handful of countries published new plans to cut emissions ahead of a February deadline.
Under the Paris Agreement, adopted nearly a decade ago, countries are expected to submit targets for cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 2035, and set out how they will reach them, by a – largely symbolic – deadline of February 10.
But only a handful of countries have submitted those plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), to the UN so far.
They include the United Arab Emirates, Brazil, Switzerland, the UK, New Zealand and the US, whose plan President Donald Trump is expected to abandon after he announced he would pull the US out of the Paris Agreement, again.
China, the European Union and India are among the big climate polluters that aren’t expected to present their plans until later this year.
In a speech on Thursday in Brazil, which is hosting the COP30 climate summit in November, Simon Stiell, the executive director of UN Climate Change, described the plans as “among the most important policy documents governments will produce this century” and argued “their quality should be the paramount consideration”.
“So taking a bit more time to ensure these plans are first-rate makes sense,” he said.
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Stiell said countries need to submit their NDC climate targets by September so they can be included in a UN assessment of planned emissions reductions, which will inform the COP30 conference.
Referring to the US pulling out of the Paris Agreement, Stiell said “geopolitical headwinds are not in our favour” but added that investments in the clean energy transition are a way to see the glass as “half-full”.
Speaking at the same event in host city of Belém, COP30 president André Corrêa do Lago said that the engagement of actors outside of the UN process such as businesses, cities or states “has become more important than ever because of important countries now leaving the process”.
COP30 will be an opportunity for countries to take stock of their collective ambition and assess how far the world remains from achieving the Paris goals of limiting temperature rise to “well below 2C” and ideally no higher than 1.5C.
More than 170 countries have told the UN they intend to submit new plans this year, according to a UN official.
But Sofia Gonzales-Zuniga, of the Climate Action Tracker, an independent monitor of government action, said she was “disappointed” by the small number of plans submitted ahead of the February deadline. “We hope this marks a turning point,” she said.
Copycat Paris exits?
US disengagement has dealt a fresh blow to climate action around the world. Argentina is mulling a Paris accord exit. In Indonesia, meanwhile, the environment ministry insisted participation in the Paris deal had been beneficial to the country after its climate envoy grumbled about unfair obligations to cut emissions when the world’s second-largest culprit is withdrawing from global climate cooperation.
“Most leaders are kept on their toes by Trump. I’d assume they will only have the mind space for NDCs after the first couple of punches from Washington,” said Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute.
Despite the headwinds brought by the US retreat from climate cooperation, Stiell argued that shifting from fossil fuels to clean energy remains in countries’ self-interest “because of the colossal scale of economic opportunity it presents”.
He also argued that the Paris Agreement is “clearly working” to avoid a climate catastrophe, noting that before the global agreement the world was on track for almost 5°C of warming — compared to the current 2.7°C. “Where it’s lacking is enforceability. At the end of the days it is for countries to nationally enforce and manage,” Stiell said.
Yet many smaller countries face capacity constraints in developing new carbon-cutting and adaptation plans while meeting reporting requirements under the Paris deal.
Among those most notably missing in action is Azerbaijan, the host of last year’s COP29 talks, which still hasn’t made good on a promise to produce a 1.5C-aligned climate plan despite an initial commitment to do so by COP29.
A COP29 spokesperson told Climate Home News that “Azerbaijan has been working tirelessly to deliver its NDC”, while “allocating significant resources” to hosting November’s climate summit.
David Waskow, of the World Resources Institute, reminded large emitters of their responsibility to “unveil bold new plans that offer a credible pathway to reaching their net-zero promises”. “Weak plans mean a bleak future, plain and simple,” he said.
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At COP28, countries agreed that the new plans – the third round of NDCs since the Paris pact – should set a specific target for cutting emissions by 2035, cover all sectors of the economy, all greenhouse gas emissions and be aligned with limiting warming to 1.5C, which scientists and campaigners say means no new fossil fuel projects.
Early submissions haven’t all reached that level of ambition, however.
Fossil fuel expansion
The UAE and Brazil insist their plans are aligned with the 1.5C goal, but both countries plan to expand oil and gas production over the next decade – creating “a profound mismatch between words and action”, said Gonzales-Zuniga.
Meanwhile, activists slammed New Zealand’s commitment to reduce emissions by a mere additional 1% between 2030 and 2035, at the low end of its planned range, as “pathetic“.
Among the large emitters that have submitted plans, only the UK’s target to cut emissions by 81% by 2035 compared to 1990 levels is considered 1.5C-aligned by Climate Action Tracker.
However, none of them improved their 2030 objective “which on the one hand makes those 2035 targets less credible and on the other, makes limiting peak global warming to 1.5C ever more difficult”, said Gonzales-Zuniga.
Speaking at an event in London on Wednesday, UK climate envoy Rachel Kyte warned that the kind of plans being put forward by countries “will not get us back on track” to avoid the worst effects of climate change.
“We’re seeing a softening of ambition from some countries in their NDCs. But… they are floors, not ceilings, and… [countries] can improve their ambition over time,” she said.
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To get on a path to limiting warming to 1.5C, annual greenhouse gas emissions must fall 42% between 2019 and 2030, and by 28% for 2C. By 2035, that increases to 57% and 37% respectively. Yet, emissions rose to record levels in 2024.
Most countries are not on track to deliver on their 2030 targets – and current policies put the world on course for more than 3C of warming, according to an assessment by the UN Environment Programme.
Hottest January on record
The warming seen in recent years has led to accelerating climate impacts and a streak of heat records. On Thursday, Europe’s climate monitoring service Copernicus said that last month was the warmest January on record as global average temperatures reached 1.75C above pre-industrial levels. This is despite an emerging La Niña weather pattern which has a temporary cooling effect on the planet.
Speaking in Brazil, UN climate chief Stiell acknowledged that “ten years on from Paris, we won’t have delivered on all our commitments”.
But he pledged to make climate negotiations “more efficient” and “make space for leaders to do concrete deals that deliver for their citizens and economies now”. This will require “fewer high-level speeches repackaging old pledges already made but nowhere near fulfilled,” he emphasised.
(Reporting by Chloé Farand; additional reporting by Matteo Civillini and Sebastián Rodríguez; editing by Megan Rowling)
