The blockade is hitting particularly hard in regions where agricultural productivity is already low and which are already at their limits due to climate shocks like droughts or floods, such as in the Horn of Africa.
The damage already done is immense: while people in Germany debate fuel prices, in Madagascar livelihoods are already at stake, with an energy emergency declared. In Sudan, conventional truck transport is being replaced by small motorcycles and donkey carts because fuel prices have risen by up to 78 percent. Humanitarian aid deliveries are also being delayed. In India, low-income populations report losing access to cooking gas and are switching back to firewood.
What are the long-term effects of the Iran war on agriculture and food security?
It will likely take years for the Gulf region’s production capacity to recover. Alternatives cannot be found overnight, and complex supply chains usually take months to stabilize. A temporary ceasefire does not yet provide the certainty needed to deliver meaningful relief.
While energy and fertilizer prices surged at the start of the blockade, they are now declining only slowly. Fears of shortages, speculation, and price gouging are keeping prices high, even as shipping resumes. Agricultural growing cycles, however, do not wait.
The situation is critical in Ethiopia, for example: the key Meher season (starting June/July) is approaching. Even if shipments arrive via Djibouti, local fuel shortages are blocking further transport. In Kenya, planting continues until the end of May. Many farmers are planting without fertilizer—a risky emergency strategy. The window is closing quickly: when maize reaches knee height about four to six weeks after planting, it requires large amounts of nitrogen. If additional fertilization does not occur by shoulder height after about eight to ten weeks, yield losses become irreversible.
What are governments doing to address the consequences of the Iran war?
Some countries are attempting to mitigate these delays through government support. In Kenya, maize farmers continue to have access to phosphate-rich fertilizers (DAP) and organo-mineral products through subsidized supplies. In India, retail fertilizer prices have remained stable thanks to government subsidies, despite reduced domestic production.
Sufficient fertilizer remains available for the smaller summer harvest; however, farmers have stockpiled supplies out of concern over future price increases. For the critical Kharif season (beginning in June/July), the fertilization window is still open. However, the key question remains how long governments can sustain this fiscal burden. Many countries are being forced to take on new debt to finance these subsidies—funds that will then be unavailable for education, healthcare, or climate action in the future.
What does Welthungerhilfe recommend in response to the looming crisis caused by the Iran war?
It is not too late to prevent worse outcomes.
- There is an urgent need for intensified diplomatic efforts to end the war and to reopen the Strait of Hormuz—initially, at least, for essential inputs.
- Low-income, import-dependent countries should temporarily subsidize food, fertilizers and energy for affected populations, or implement targeted cash transfers. Experience from previous crises shows that the latter is highly effective. Multilateral organizations should provide financial support where necessary (see below).
- Emergency relief funds could also help cover the increased costs of humanitarian operations.
- A global coordination mechanism could ensure that existing fertilizer stocks reach those most in need, rather than those with the highest purchasing power.
A positive example can also be found in Welthungerhilfe’s work: many smallholder farmers in Nepal, Bangladesh and India produce their own natural fertilizers. Because they are not dependent on costly imports, they are proving significantly more resilient in the crisis.
This points the way forward. The current crisis must serve as a catalyst to make food systems more resilient and sustainable. Globalization must be shaped to strengthen diversity and resilience rather than create one-sided dependencies. This includes promoting regenerative agriculture and renewable energy, expanding regional fertilizer production capacities, and diversifying trade relationships.
