Lula’s election win in Brazil raises hopes for zero deforestation drive

The surprise re-election of Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on Sunday, in a tight race against right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro, has raised hopes the country can meet a flagship target to end deforestation in all its biomes by 2030 and advance international fundraising to protect rainforests.

Defying expectations to win an unprecedented fourth term in office, Lula – who turns 81 this week – said in his acceptance speech that “we will show the world how climate policy is handled in this country”, and highlighted that, during his last four years as leader, the country has reduced deforestation every year.

The surprise re-election of Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on Sunday, in a tight race against right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro, has raised hopes the country can meet a flagship target to end deforestation in all its biomes by 2030 and advance international fundraising to protect rainforests.

Defying expectations to win an unprecedented fourth term in office, Lula – who turns 81 this week – said in his acceptance speech that “we will show the world how climate policy is handled in this country”, and highlighted that, during his last four years as leader, the country has reduced deforestation every year.

Earlier this month, new data from Brazil’s space agency showed that forest-clearing in the Amazon fell to its lowest on record, after the introduction of a deforestation action plan that constrained illegal cattle ranching from expanding into the world’s largest rainforest.

Brazil leads “encouraging” decline in global rainforest destruction in 2025

At an international level, the country has long championed forest conservation, spearheading the creation of the newly established Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF). As president of last year’s COP30 climate summit, the country is also developing a global roadmap to halt forest loss by the end of the decade, in line with a global goal, which will be presented at the upcoming UN climate summit in Antalya.

‘Much more needs to be done’

In 2023, Lula’s previous administration introduced a deforestation action plan that set a target of zero deforestation by 2030, achieving swift results. His re-election paves the way for this downward trend to continue.

Carlos Nobre, a veteran Brazilian climate scientist and co-chair of the Science Panel for the Amazon, said Brazil now has a “historic opportunity” to prevent a tipping point where large parts of the Amazon rainforest could turn into savanna, with dangerous impacts for the planet’s climate.

“The reduction in deforestation over recent years has been crucial, but much more needs to be done. Ending deforestation by 2030, tackling forest degradation and accelerating large-scale forest restoration are urgent priorities,” he said.

Anders Haug Larsen, advocacy director at the Norway Rainforest Foundation, described the election result as a “relief”, adding it makes it more attractive for donors to support rainforest protection in the country.

“Hope is a scarce commodity these days,” he said. “The international community must grasp this opportunity to strengthen efforts towards zero deforestation in the Amazon.”

Rainforest fund boosted by election result

Brazil was the original proponent of the TFFF, one of the highest-profile initiatives aimed at channelling new finance to protect the world’s rainforests. The fund aims to raise public seed capital to invest in financial markets, and then pay rainforest countries from the returns on those investments.

Despite being a developing country, Brazil has pledged $1 billion to the fund and is expected to play a key role in helping reach its goal to raise $10 billion from governments by the end of this year.

“We need more countries to come on board to meet the mobilisation target of $10 billion this year, and this election should inject trust in the calls from rainforest countries for support to their forest protection efforts,” Larsen said.

Brazil confident new rainforest fund will reach $10bn donor milestone

On Monday, the day after the election result, the Netherlands announced a €500-million contribution to the fund, which will be disbursed over ten years and is still subject to parliamentary approval. This brings the total pledged to the TFFF from a range of countries to $7.8 billion.

Norway’s climate minister Sigrun Aasland told a TFFF event on the sidelines of the UN biodiversity summit in Yerevan that she was hopeful the $10bn goal could be achieved by the end of this year.

Brazilian officials have led the TFFF’s fundraising efforts and said they are in conversations with more potential donors including China, Korea and Japan.

Congress shifts further to the right

Sonia Guajajara, former minister of Indigenous Peoples in Lula’s government, celebrated the president’s re-election but cautioned that the 20 indigenous territories created under his current administration must be consolidated, as they are “essential to tackling the climate crisis and preserving our biomes”.

Veteran Brazilian diplomat Bráulio Ferreira de Souza Dias, meanwhile, noted that Lula faces a difficult political scenario, as right-wing pro-Bolsonaro lawmakers have gained more seats in both legislative chambers. He added that the courts will become key battlegrounds to challenge anti-climate legislation.

Observatório do Clima, a network of Brazilian green groups, said seven out of every ten representatives and senators who will make up the next legislature are likely to vote against the climate and environmental agenda, urging Lula’s administration to strengthen its action in parliament and expand alliances.

Still, Ferreira de Souza Dias echoed the widespread view among climate policy-makers that a Bolsonaro win would have been “terrible” for the rainforest and Indigenous peoples, and said the country had avoided a scenario where deforestation threatened to increase again.