Tropical Depression Six has formed over the Atlantic waters, just southwest of the Azores. We have been monitoring Invest 99L for the last few days, and it has finally developed a closed surface circulation and sustained winds of about 35 mph (55 km/h). The National Hurricane Center forecasts this system to continue meandering through late Sunday, and during this same period it could become a tropical storm and begin moving faster toward the southwest. The next name on the list is Fay.
This system is sandwiched between two areas of very strong wind shear. At the surface, a high-pressure system to the north will prevent the cyclone from moving toward the Azores. The high-pressure system to the north will intensify and extend a bit farther south as a low-pressure system squeezes the high southward, allowing the cyclone to move southwest and remain over open waters. As the system moves southwest, it will encounter strong wind shear, which will gradually weaken the cyclone.
Meteorological models disagree on the long-term forecast for this system, specifically when it will dissipate. While the European model has the system sticking around for the next five days, the GFS, or American model, has the system dissipating by the middle of the week. The good news is that regardless of when the system dissipates, it is forecast to stay over the open ocean, also known as a “fish storm,” without impacting land.
The Atlantic Remains Quiet
Hurricane season peaked and faded with little activity. We officially have had five named storms. No major hurricanes and no hurricanes have formed to date. On average, by this date, there would have been four hurricanes and two major hurricanes. We have officially set a new record: this is the latest in the year within the modern era, since satellites have existed (1966), that we haven’t had a hurricane so late in the season.
For the record, only two years have been recorded with zero hurricanes: 1907 and 1914. But without satellites back then, we cannot be 100% certain there were no hurricanes in those years.
Latest first Atlantic hurricanes:
| Rank | Season | First hurricane | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1905 | Unnamed | Oct. 8 |
| 2 | 1941 | Unnamed | Sept. 21 |
| 3 | 1877 | Unnamed | Sept. 16 |
| 4 | 1922 | Unnamed | Sept. 15 |
| 5 | 1912 | Unnamed | Sept. 12 |
| 6 | 2002 | Gustav | Sept. 11 |
| 6 | 2013 | Humberto | Sept. 11 |
| 8 | 2022 | Danielle | Sept. 2 |
Eastern Pacific
As of Saturday morning, no named tropical systems exist in the eastern or central Pacific. But two areas have a high chance of development within the next two days, and another area is about to cross into the central Pacific region with a medium chance of development over the next seven days.
Invest 99E has an 80% chance of development during the next 48 hours. Satellite data shows that although thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, conditions could become more favorable for a tropical depression to form as the system moves toward the north, and it could impact the west-central coast of Mexico. Residents and tourists in this region should monitor the system closely, as models show it could become a hurricane by mid-week and move parallel to the Mexican coast.
Still a very strong signal for #99E to eventually intensify into a powerful hurricane south of #Mexico next week. There is ongoing track uncertainty though, in terms of whether it moves north into the coast or bends west for a time. Some of this uncertainty seems to be driven by… pic.twitter.com/rpg2JOI9T5
— Andy Hazelton (@AndyHazelton) September 19, 2026
The next system with a chance of tropical development is Invest 98E, which remains disorganized and is located over 1,000 miles south of the Baja California Peninsula. It is expected to continue moving west-northwest at about 10 mph, and it is not likely to affect land.
Lastly, former Tropical Depression 15E developed on Sunday, September 13, and by Wednesday had dissipated without affecting land as it moved west over the open Pacific. This open wave could be revived next week as the system continues to move west-southwest, south of the Hawaiian Islands, as favorable environmental conditions could develop mid-week.
The 2026 Atlantic #hurricane season continues to be remarkably quiet, generating the least Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of any Atlantic hurricane season through September 16 since 1950. ACE is an integrated metric accounting for storm intensity and duration. #ElNino pic.twitter.com/2zK7UfvwEz
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) September 16, 2026
As of Saturday, the eastern Pacific (east of the International Date Line) has had 16 named storms, six hurricanes, and four major hurricanes (this includes activity in the Central Pacific). The season so far has achieved 178.5 accumulated cyclone energy units (ACE, which accounts for both how strong storms become and how long they remain strong), and is running about 77% above average. The strongest storm this season in the eastern Pacific has been Category 5 Genevieve, which reached 160 mph (260 km/h).
The Central Pacific (the portion of the eastern Pacific between 140°W and 180°W) has also remained very active. Several islands in the Hawaiian chain have been impacted by different systems this season. In the central Pacific alone, ACE is reported at 76.7 through September 18, and this basin has had four hurricanes and two major hurricanes track through it. Keep in mind that some of these hurricanes, such as Fausto and Lowell, were born in the Eastern Pacific.
The Atlantic has produced just five named storms, none of them hurricanes, and the accumulated cyclone energy is 4.4. This is 94% below normal. The strongest systems of the Atlantic hurricane season, based on maximum sustained winds, have been Bertha and Edward, which reached 60 mph (95 km/h).
Jeff Masters and Bob Henson contributed to this post.
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