September 19, 2026 By Lani and Patricio Marquez
El Niño is a cyclical weather phenomenon that raises the surface temperature of the tropical Pacific Ocean, running along the Equator from the coast of South America. The magnitude of El Niño is measured by how far surface temperatures rise above normal. A Super El Niño is characterized by temperatures that rise 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above average. This year’s event is expected to go even further, well exceeding the prior strong El Niño events that began in 1997, 2015, and 2023.
In July and August 2026, temperature readings off the coast of South America have registered 29 degrees Celsius (84 degrees Fahrenheit), the highest temperature ever recorded there and already +2.7 degrees Celsius above average. The warming of the Pacific is expected to intensify as this Super El Niño continues into 2027.
El Niño’s effects are three-fold: First, the warming of surface water weakens the natural rise of cold, nutrient-rich deep water which in turn starves microscopic marine plants (phytoplankton) that are the base of the food web and has a domino effect on fish populations, which decline or move to other areas. Second, a strong El Niño raises the average global temperature, compounding the effects of global warming and intensifying wildfires, drought, and crop failures across the globe. Some regions see drought while others experience flooding rains as the heat from the Pacific spreads around the world. Third, El Niño causes big shifts in the winds that blow moist air across the oceans, affecting rain-fed agriculture.
The United Nations’ World Food Program (WFP) predicts that by the end of 2026, El Niño will significantly affect rainfall patterns and temperatures, increasing both floods and droughts and causing an additional 50 million people to experience acute hunger, an increase of over 20%. The most affected regions are expected to be parts of Central America and Southern Africa, although significant impacts are also forecast in Eastern Africa and South and Southeast Asia.
In Guatemala, El Niño has already delayed planting and disrupted crop growth of subsistence agriculture due to rainfall 85 percent below average in July and well-above-normal temperatures. At the western end of the tropical Pacific, El Niño has led to a dry summer in parts of Southeast Asia, delaying the planting of rice and other crops in Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam and the Philippines. In recent weeks, monsoon rains have increased in some areas of India while large areas of the country remain in drought.
With food prices already rising due to conflict in the Middle East that has markedly increased fertilizer prices, the stronger and more persistent El Niño is expected to disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously and further push food prices well above current projections.
And not all of the weather changes associated with this super El Niño will be negative. Increased rainfall predicted for the Midwest, Southern, and Eastern Seaboard of the United States, coupled with warmer temperatures in the Northeast, could result in increased food production in some areas.
The WFP is working with governments and humanitarian partners to avert the worst-case scenarios predicted for this year’s El Niño through “anticipatory action”, helping vulnerable communities prepare before disasters strike, through early interventions such as cash assistance, farming support, insurance and early-warning information.
Responding effectively to climatic shocks requires anticipating how a warming world may amplify their consequences and preparing accordingly. The principles that underpin anticipatory action are adaptive implementation, multisectoral coordination, rapid repurposing of financing, and the capacity to act on emerging risks before additional resources become available. As climate-related disasters become more frequent and severe, these principles remain highly relevant for all countries.
Photo credit: NASA Scientific Visualization Studio, June 9, 2026 https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/31399/
