This is a terrific question asked by several readers. Broadly speaking, a lot less is at stake than meets the eye. Keep in mind that there haven’t really been any cuts to Title I, Pell, IDEA, or the school lunch program. Right now, education spending looks a lot like it did under Biden, and a Democratic win just won’t have much impact on outlays. The big changes have been Congress’s reforms to higher ed accountability and lending, the Trump administration’s executive actions, and their push to dismantle the Department of Education. Even if Democrats win huge, Team Trump’s policies on DEI, gender identity, immigration, and accreditation will remain (albeit with more congressional oversight). Democrats could seek to compel the administration to reverse staffing cuts at ED or unwind the interagency agreements that shifted units to other agencies, but they’ll lack the votes to overcome a Trump veto. Moreover, Democrats aren’t of one mind on the big education provisions in OBBBA (like higher ed accountability and the Federal Scholarship Tax Credit), meaning they’re unlikely to broach those in a serious way. If the Democrats take the White House in 2028, it’ll be a different story. But, for now, even an excellent night for Democrats would have limited implications for federal education policy.
You mentioned that the Democratic Socialists are for free pre-K, free college, and loan forgiveness. What are the odds that those policy proposals become an important part of the Democratic agenda after the election?
There are a couple different answers. In blue states, a good night for DSA candidates probably energizes the push to expand free pre-K or promote free college. But the rise of the DSA likely won’t change the calculus in purple or red states. In fact, if pre-K or free college get coded as “DSA” in those states, it could increase resistance among conservative media outlets and Republicans. In Washington, Democrats will likely embrace pre-K as part of an “affordability” agenda (meanwhile, loan forgiveness is probably tainted by Biden’s failed push). While you might expect Trump to be implacably opposed, he’s shown that he’s unbothered by deficit spending, likes cutting deals, and loves putting his name on things. So, you can see how pre-K could move as part of a package. But Democrats will be reluctant to hand Trump wins, the bond market is already hyper-stressed about our mountainous debt, and Democrats have a slew of competing priorities. So, I’d bet against federal action before 2029.
How much pressure on higher ed would a Democratic win really alleviate? It might give institutions short-term relief, but they’d still face demographic pressures, declining college participation among young men, and the fundamental question of what a college education prepares students to do.
Yup, you’re right to flag the long- versus short-term pressures. A big Democratic win would bring some sighs of relief on campus (as well as some quiet grumbling from presidents who’ve used the Trump bogeyman as an excuse to tackle festering problems). But campus officialdom shouldn’t get too comfortable. The problems in higher ed stretch far beyond this election’s shadow. For one thing, plenty of Dems are concerned about college cost and completion. They won’t be eager to just reopen higher ed’s federal money spigot. More broadly, there’s going to be a reckoning for private colleges with high operating costs and modest endowments. A shrinking applicant pool and doubts about the value of a degrees in an AI world make it harder to find full-freight students. Similar doubts are hitting public access institutions which rely on tuition and state aid. Oh, and OBBBA’s lending and accountability provisions are poised to squeeze high-priced degrees and low-quality programs. All that will remain true, no matter what happens next month.
