Hurricane Melissa made landfall in the eastern Cuban province of Santiago de Cuba, about 40 miles (65 km) west of Santiago de Cuba – the country’s second most populous city — at 3:10 a.m. EDT Oct. 29 as a Category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds near 120 mph (195 km/h) and a central pressure of 952 mb. Passage over the rugged mountains of Cuba significantly disrupted the hurricane, which emerged late Wednesday morning over the Atlantic waters as a Category 2 storm, a few hundred miles southwest of the southeastern Bahamas.
As of 11 a.m. EDT Wednesday, Melissa was centered about 150 miles (245 km) south of the central Bahamas, speeding northeast at 14 mph (22 km/hr) with top sustained winds of 100 mph (155 km/h) and a central pressure of 974 mb. Satellite imagery showed a significantly disrupted storm, with a prominent eye no longer visible. However, Melissa has expanded in size, and will bring widespread impacts to the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands.
Last hurricane to hit Cuba: Category 3 Rafael of Nov. 2024
Melissa was the 12th major hurricane to hit Cuba in the past 25 years. Remarkably, no major hurricanes hit Cuba during the 34-year period from 1967-2000. Before Melissa, the last hurricane to hit Cuba was Hurricane Rafael, which made landfall in southwestern Cuba about 40 miles southwest of Havana on Nov. 6, 2024, as a Category 3 storm with 115 mph (185 km/h) winds and a central pressure of 956 mb. Rafael was the first November major hurricane to make landfall in Cuba since Hurricane Michelle of 2001. Rafael did not kill anyone, but did $1 billion in damage.
The entire electrical grid of Cuba was knocked offline after Rafael, and over half of the cell phones were without service in western Cuba. Cuba’s electrical grid has remained frail since Rafael hit, with four additional complete collapses, most recently on Sep. 10. It has taken 2-3 days for power to be fully restored after each collapse. The power was shut off to much of eastern Cuba prior to the arrival of Melissa to minimize the chances of a repeat island-wide power failure.
Forecast for Melissa
A trough of low pressure passing to the north has yanked Melissa to the northeast at an accelerating pace. On this track, Melissa will pass quickly through the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands today. This fast motion will limit the rains of the hurricane, but rainfall amounts of 5-10 inches (125-250 mm) are likely. Melissa’s current forecast track takes it over or very near Crooked Island, which is highly vulnerable to storm surge (Fig. 1). According to the latest storm surge forecast from CERA, the Coastal Emergency Risks Assessment, Melissa’s surge will affect both the central and southeastern Bahamas, with little surge predicted for the Turks and Caicos Islands. NHC is predicting that Melissa will be a Cat 2 hurricane on Wednesday in the Bahamas, and also on Thursday, when it will be very near Bermuda.
Melissa is expected to transition to a powerful extratropical storm on Friday, and pass a few hundred miles southeast of Newfoundland, Canada on Friday night or Saturday morning, with sustained winds of 65-70 mph (105-115 km/h). A flow of moist air in advance of the storm is likely to contribute to heavy rains of 1-3 inches (25-75 mm) over Atlantic Canada on Friday and Saturday, associated with a separate storm.
The full scope of Melissa’s impact still unknown
After making landfall in Jamaica yesterday as the strongest landfalling Atlantic hurricane on record, the full scope of Melissa’s impact on the Caribbean is still unknown. Melissa is being blamed for at least 40 deaths: 30 in Haiti (25 of them in Petit-Goâve, after a river flooded by Melissa burst its banks); four in the Dominican Republic; three in Jamaica; and three in Panama. The areas hardest-hit by the storm are largely still inaccessible, so the death toll can be expected to grow considerably. The deaths in Jamaica were indirect deaths that occurred during storm preparation work.
It is difficult to assess how severe the flooding from the hurricane might be in Jamaica and Hispaniola, because of the lack of observations. In Jamaica, Montego Bay stopped transmitting data after 5 a.m. EDT Oct. 28, after reporting heavy rain and sustained winds of 40 mph gusting to 56 mph. Kingston’s airport transmitted data throughout the storm, reporting peak winds of 47 mph, gusting to 58 mph, but reported rainfall data only intermittently. Their only rain report was for 7.36 inches (187 mm) in the 12 hours ending at 2 a.m. EDT Oct. 29. A personal weather station on the east side of Kingston at Millsborough recorded a two-day rainfall amount of 10.84 inches as of 2 p.m. EDT Tuesday, but has since stopped reporting. Another station on the north central shore of Jamaica at Boscobel reported 9.31 inches Oct. 27-28. Rainfall data for Haiti is not available, even from the capital of Port-au-Prince.
An astonishing slew of records
The historical nature of Melissa will come under thorough review in the coming months, but below are some of the preliminary notable records it set. And look at the calendar when thinking about these records: Melissa hit on October 28, seven weeks past the traditional peak of hurricane season, at a time when less than 10% of an average season’s activity occurs!
- Peak winds of 185 mph: tied for the second highest on record in the Atlantic, along with Hurricane Dorian in the Bahamas (2019) and the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane in the Florida Keys. Hurricane scientist Andy Hazelton suggested that Melissa might have been even stronger, tying or beating Hurricane Allen’s record-high 190-mph winds in 1980, but it will be many months before a post-season review will be completed.
- Lowest pressure of 892 mb: third all-time in the Atlantic, behind only Wilma (882 mb, 2005) and Gilbert (888 mb, 1988), both in the Western Caribbean.
- Strongest landfalling Atlantic hurricane by both pressure (892 mb) and wind (185 mph), tied with the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane.
- Highest wind gust ever measured by a dropsonde: 252 mph (406 km/h, or 219 kt).
- Strongest tropical cyclone globally ever measured using the Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT): 215 mph (345 km/h).
- First hurricane to force two hurricane hunter missions to abort (one by NOAA on Oct. 27, one by the Air Force on Oct. 28).
- Lasted 36 hours at Category 5 strength, the fourth-longest such stretch in the satellite era. Most major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricanes undergo at least one eyewall replacement cycle during their lifetimes – especially high-end Category 4 and 5 hurricanes like Melissa — but Melissa never did, allowing it to remain a Cat 5 unusually long.
- Rapidly intensified explosively (>60 mph strengthening in 24 hours), bringing the 2025 tally of such explosively intensifying hurricane to four. This ties 2025 with 2020, 2008, and 2005 for the most explosively intensifying hurricanes in a season.
Please donate to Hurricane Melissa relief efforts
In the coming days, you’ll see a number of appeals for Hurricane Melissa relief; please consider donating to one. One charity that I’ve donated to in the past, GlobalGiving, has set up the GlobalGiving Hurricane Melissa Relief Fund. Their mission: “to help meet immediate needs for search and rescue assistance, medical care, food, clean water, temporary shelter, and more. Once initial relief work is complete, this fund will transition to support longer-term recovery led by vetted, community-based organizations. Special priority will be given to marginalized and underserved populations most impacted by the hurricane. Give now.“
Another charity that has a Hurricane Melissa response fund is Water Mission, a Christian engineering nonprofit. “Clean, safe water is critical during any disaster to prevent the spread of water-related illnesses, especially in the initial days following a disaster,” they emailed me.
YCC en español editor Pearl Marvel also suggested the Jamaican government’s official fundraiser and The Global Empowerment Missions’ Hurricane Melissa fund.
Bob Henson contributed to this post.
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