After completing a right turn just southeast of Bermuda, Hurricane Gabrielle — still at Category 4 strength at midday Tuesday — may still be a hurricane when it moves over or near the Azores on Thursday. The National Weather Service has issued a hurricane watch for the Azores, where such threats arriving from the west are uncommon beasts.
As of 5 p.m. EDT Tuesday, Gabrielle was centered about 520 miles (835 kilometers) east-northeast of Bermuda, heading east-northeast at 21 mph (33 km/h). Gabrielle was still packing top sustained winds of 130 mph (215 m/h), keeping it at Category 4 strength, and there remained plenty of intense showers and thunderstorms (convection) around its well-defined center. Gabrielle will accelerate east to east-northeast through Wednesday, with wind shear increasing sharply as it moves over much cooler water. An upper low swinging by Gabrielle to the north may provide high-level outflow that keeps the hurricane stronger for a bit longer than one might otherwise expect. Gabrielle is now predicted to reach the northwestern Azores on Thursday night as a hurricane, but even if it transitions into a post-tropical cyclone just before that point, winds could still exceed hurricane strength. Moreover, several islands will be on the stronger southeast side of Gabrielle. By Sunday, Gabrielle is predicted to reach Portugal as a post-tropical storm, still packing winds of tropical-storm strength.
The waters traversed by Gabrielle on Monday and Tuesday were running about 1 to 1.5 degrees Centigrade (2–3 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than average, part of a vast zone of unusually toasty sea surface temperatures (SSTs) stretching across most of the subtropical Atlantic. This anomalous warmth was made 20 to 100 times more likely by human-caused climate change, according to the Climate Shift Index: Ocean from Climate Central. Warming oceans over the past decade have fueled a number of tropical-cyclone encounters with the Azores, where cool SSTs often tamp down any direct impacts from hurricanes and tropical storms. The most recent named system to affect the Azores was Subtropical Storm Patty, just prior to it becoming Tropical Storm Patty, in early November 2024.
Gabrielle’s surge to Cat 4 strength on Monday put the 2025 Atlantic season in a strangely bifurcated mode. Thus far, the season has produced one Cat 5 hurricane (Erin), one Cat 4 hurricane (Gabrielle), and five weak to moderate tropical storms (Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dexter, and Fernand). Every Atlantic system this year has peaked with sustained winds of either no more than 60 mph or at least 140 mph!
Invest 93L will follow Gabrielle’s lead, but it could pass closer to Bermuda
A disturbance in the western tropical Atlantic named 93L is on track to develop northeast of the Caribbean islands and recurve well east of the U.S. East Coast, much like Erin and Gabrielle did. Unlike those other two, though, 93L could end up passing over or near Bermuda. Satellite imagery at midday Tuesday showed a growing array of convection around 93L, with some spin evident. 93L will enter an increasingly moist mid-level environment (relative humidity rising to 60-65%) over the next couple of days as it approaches the unusually warm waters of the subtropical northwest Atlantic. Wind shear will be moderately strong through Wednesday, then increasing, which could hinder development. As of 2 p.m. EDT, the Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center gave 93L a 60% chance of becoming at least a tropical depression by Thursday and a 90% chance by next Tuesday. The next name on this year’s Atlantic list is Humberto.
Ensemble forecast models suggest 93L will likely become a named system by this weekend, and some ensemble members bring it to hurricane strength. The track forecast for 93L looks to be fairly straightforward, as the system will likely move toward the upper-level weakness left by Gabrielle on a classic recurvature path. The most likely track is a bit further west than Gabrielle, which could put Bermuda at risk of direct impacts by early next week.
Invest 94L to pelt the northeast Caribbean islands with squally, heavy rainstorms
Still disorganized as it moved into the Northern Leeward Islands on Tuesday, Invest 94L is the first system in weeks that bears watching for potential impacts along the U.S. East Coast. As of Tuesday afternoon, the broad circulation of 94L was moving west at 15-20 mph, with scattered convection across a wide area east of the islands and some spin evident toward the west edge of the convection, in the vicinity of Guadeloupe. Localized convection could dump several inches of rain from the Virgin Islands and other nearby islands west to parts of Puerto Rico into Wednesday.
Ensemble models have been decidedly more vague on the future of 94L versus 93L, with some uncertainty over whether 94L will even develop. The ensemble members that do develop 94L tend to bring it slowly northward or north-northwestward toward The Bahamas by late week into the weekend, with ensemble tracks diverging beyond that point. The longer-term future of 94L will hinge largely on a strong upper low pushing through the eastern U.S. this week. Long-range forecast models suggest that a piece of this low will become separated and drift across the Southeast, perhaps toward the Gulf Coast. Such a pattern could help pull 94L toward the U.S. East Coast, perhaps the Carolinas, sometime next week. If both 93L and 94L develop into tropical storms or hurricanes, they could be near enough to each other to bring in the Fujiwhara effect, which would further complicate any track forecast.
There’s still plenty of time for other scenarios to take shape, and it may be several days before we have much more clarity on 94L’s future. The next name on the Atlantic list after Humberto is Imelda.
Typhoon Ragasa churns toward far south China and Vietnam
Now weakening after its stunning ascent to Category 5 super-typhoon strength, Ragasa is moving steadily west to west-northwest toward China’s populous far southern coast. Torrential rains in Taiwan from the rainbands on the north side of Ragasa led to the bursting of a barrier lake near Guangfu on Tuesday, leading to flash floods that killed at least 2 people and left scores more trapped or missing, according to the BBC.
As of 5 p.m. EDT Tuesday (5 a.m. Wednesday in Hong Kong), the Joint Typhoon Warning Center reported that Ragasa’s top sustained winds were 130 mph, keeping it the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane. The typhoon was centered about 150 mi (140 km) southeast of Hong Kong, heading west-northwest. Over a million people have been evacuated in China’s Guangdong province, according to the Associated Press, and the Hong Kong Observatory issued its highest possible typhoon alert for the city: signal #10, meaning that wind speeds could reach hurricane strength.
Although Ragasa continues to plow across sea surface temperatures around 0.5–1.0°C (1-2°F) warmer than average, upper-level conditions have become slightly less favorable. Some weakening is forecast before Ragasa makes landfall on Wednesday night local time nearly parallel to the coast west of Hong Kong, perhaps just east of the Leizhou Peninsula, most likely at Cat 2 or 3 strength. A significant storm surge is possible, especially given Ragasa’s angle of movement. After moving past the Leizhou Peninsula, Ragasa will parallel the China coast, perhaps staying just offshore, and it could remain a tropical cyclone before reaching northern Vietnam. In any event, fierce winds and torrential rains will accompany Ragasa’s landfall, and the heavy rains could extend well into northern Vietnam.
Jeff Masters contributed to this post.
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