Climate change and conflict are deeply connected for people living in the Lake Turkana Basin. Pastoralism and fishing are central to traditional ways of life in the region, but changes to the climate are increasing competition for scarce resources and fuelling tensions. With primary livelihoods at risk and unequal access to water and land, conflicts have been escalating in recent years.
This report, commissioned by the UN World Food Programme (WFP) and conducted by International Alert, presents an in-depth conflict analysis in Marsabit and Turkana counties. Its findings are designed to inform WFP projects in the region by analysing the dynamics and root causes of conflict in the region, including factors linked to climate change, as well as other social, political, environmental and economic issues.
Using a climate security lens, the study shows how climate change acts as a “threat multiplier” that intensifies existing insecurities, grievances and governance challenges. Droughts, floods, water scarcity, shrinking grazing land, and pressure on fishing resources are shown to amplify competition and insecurity, particularly among pastoralist, agro-pastoralist, and fisher communities.
Traditional livelihoods remain central to resilience in the Lake Turkana Basin, but the environmental systems they rely on are under growing strain. Climate-driven resource scarcity, population movements, conservation restrictions, and unequal access to natural resources have disrupted livelihoods. As a result, many people are moving, adapting and diversifying, further increasing tensions between and within communities.
The report provides practical recommendations for WFP and its partners to effectively incorporate conflict-sensitivity, inclusive governance and peacebuilding into its programs, with wider implications for future interventions and research.
